今天我要介绍SAMGOSS的天时，地利，人和，看得懂英文的最好去股海沉浮 之 万人皆醉 我独醒这里看。
SAMGOSS 要我提醒大家要学习他的方法，一定要坚守两个原则：
1） 不能CONTRA((即是不要想在T+3内卖出)。
2） 一定要有持票能力。
孙子兵法说 ：要彻底赢得战役，你必须要有天時地利及人和缺一不可。
每个人都知道什麽是： 天时，地利，人和。你知道并不代表你了解。你了解了，并不代表你懂得如何运用在投资股票上。
什麽是天时呢？天时是无法控制，只能虚心的了解，比如外国及本地的市场情绪，行业前景及消费趋势对个股的影响。
什麽是地利呢？地利就是你能控制的基本面，如盈利成长良好，涉及的领域大丰收等，买入本益比（PE）<10>50 是你的选择，你的决定。
什麽是人和呢？人和就是时机（TIMING）。好的时机可以从注意交易量的突增获得---是不是有大股东买入/有国内外基金收集/有好消息就要宣布等等
SAMGOSS认为蓝筹股本益比
平均 25
> 25 太贵了
~ 20 可以考虑
二三线股本益比
平均 15
>18 太贵了
在买入低本益比（PE)股时，要先确定未来的盈利是否有能力保持，这需要从过去几个季报做出推断，要记得未来的盈利决定公司的成长。
三者之中，他认为地利或基本面（FA）最为重要，如你拥有有地利的股票，短期内你可能无法获利，但长期而言，你会获得你应得的回报，这些股票的例子有 PPB ,PBB,YTL ,IOI, Maybank 及 Genting 等等。
有天時及人和， 但缺少地利的股其实是以投机或听谣言买入，偶而会获利，但更多时候你将不能得到你想要的，而且会亏损。
如你要玩短线，你需要天時及人和，当然还有运气，但如果你要以有限的资金安全及平稳的获取最大的利益，你需要三者皆在， 如果天时及人和都没善待你，你还有地利的支持 。
大马股市（KLSE）在现阶段是严重缺乏天时及人和， 如你现在买入，你需要最少持票几个月，而且在熊市中的获利也是很有限的 (广东人说的；你赢，赢一粒糖，你输，就输一间厂 )。
永远记得投资要顺风而行， 天时与人和同在时，买进有地利（FA）的股就如顺水推舟，顺风顺水，大富大贵。
然而，当市场走下坡时，没有天时及人和,如果我们冒冒然的冲进去买，就如逆水推舟，不进则退，即使有地利也会遭殃。
地利的股适合玩长期。 SAMGOSS的经验是现在地利股长期虽然可以赚钱，但你有需要付出长期持股，资金被绑，错失其他买入良机的代价吗？先卖出，以后才买回不是更好吗 ?虽然我们并不知道那里是最低点，但在熊市，肯定有机会在更低价买回。
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
SAMGOSS 的问与答
循丛要求，SAMGOSS 建议。
Hi Sifu Sam,
有一些东西不是很明白，希望能够向你学习.
我知道本益比是其中一个好的投资指标，但纯以本益比（这只依据过去的赚益）来决定买入点，而没考虑到未来的赚益，其实是有很大的风险。
最难的是，我们做为门外汉，不能真正知道及检验公司现在与未来的方向，譬如公司可能在前几个季度成绩杰出，但以前的记录并不能确保未来的盈利，而任何一个投资错误或管理层居心不良，都能把公司带去荷兰。
所以我觉得如果只是依靠本益比，我们就像把赌注及信心交到公司的管理层，而很多时候，他们的所作所为都不是以小股东为出发点。
想问的是：当你买进一支股时， 除了本益比，你还有用其他指标或讯息吗？
Regards,
Yong
SAMGOSS 答：
1)只要你一脚踏入股市，就已把自己推入危机重重的股海，风险是避免不了的。
2) 除了死亡，这世间没有“肯定”的事。但买入低本益比的股票，特别是蓝筹股却肯定能降低亏损的风险及提高获利的潜能。如果这些股项能够经历了911 恐怖袭击，1987 黑色星期一，1998 东南亚金融风暴这些阻碍，挂牌五十年后还竖立不倒，这证明了它们基本面超强，管理良好。
3) 当然，如果未来盈利不能持续，买进低本益比或盈利记录良好的股票是不能保证一定投资获利；但如果买进低本益比都不能保证赚钱，那高本益比的股票呢？能够吗？
这就好像我告诉你：高廋的人不能在11秒内跑完一百公尺，可是肥矮的人能够吗？就这麽简单。
在我买入任何股票前，低本益比是我的第一个考量，之后我会审查过去的盈利报告来预测未来的盈利 。
基本上我不会买入本益比 〉15 的二三线股或本益比 〉20 的蓝筹股。
让我们做个比较：低本益比 = 受过教育的人，高本益比 = 没受过教育的人，这里没看轻人的意思。
受过教育的人没有保证一定成功，没受过教育的人不见得保证失败。但是受过教育的人最后成功及富有的机率肯定比没受过教育的高出十倍以上，你同意吗？
这就是为什麽我们应该/只是/一定买进低本益比的蓝筹股，因为我们获利的机率比买进高本益比的股项高了十倍以上。
Hi Sifu Sam,
有一些东西不是很明白，希望能够向你学习.
我知道本益比是其中一个好的投资指标，但纯以本益比（这只依据过去的赚益）来决定买入点，而没考虑到未来的赚益，其实是有很大的风险。
最难的是，我们做为门外汉，不能真正知道及检验公司现在与未来的方向，譬如公司可能在前几个季度成绩杰出，但以前的记录并不能确保未来的盈利，而任何一个投资错误或管理层居心不良，都能把公司带去荷兰。
所以我觉得如果只是依靠本益比，我们就像把赌注及信心交到公司的管理层，而很多时候，他们的所作所为都不是以小股东为出发点。
想问的是：当你买进一支股时， 除了本益比，你还有用其他指标或讯息吗？
Regards,
Yong
SAMGOSS 答：
1)只要你一脚踏入股市，就已把自己推入危机重重的股海，风险是避免不了的。
2) 除了死亡，这世间没有“肯定”的事。但买入低本益比的股票，特别是蓝筹股却肯定能降低亏损的风险及提高获利的潜能。如果这些股项能够经历了911 恐怖袭击，1987 黑色星期一，1998 东南亚金融风暴这些阻碍，挂牌五十年后还竖立不倒，这证明了它们基本面超强，管理良好。
3) 当然，如果未来盈利不能持续，买进低本益比或盈利记录良好的股票是不能保证一定投资获利；但如果买进低本益比都不能保证赚钱，那高本益比的股票呢？能够吗？
这就好像我告诉你：高廋的人不能在11秒内跑完一百公尺，可是肥矮的人能够吗？就这麽简单。
在我买入任何股票前，低本益比是我的第一个考量，之后我会审查过去的盈利报告来预测未来的盈利 。
基本上我不会买入本益比 〉15 的二三线股或本益比 〉20 的蓝筹股。
让我们做个比较：低本益比 = 受过教育的人，高本益比 = 没受过教育的人，这里没看轻人的意思。
受过教育的人没有保证一定成功，没受过教育的人不见得保证失败。但是受过教育的人最后成功及富有的机率肯定比没受过教育的高出十倍以上，你同意吗？
这就是为什麽我们应该/只是/一定买进低本益比的蓝筹股，因为我们获利的机率比买进高本益比的股项高了十倍以上。
Monday, April 28, 2008
Dangers of small cap stocks Very few make the grade
INVESTING SCENTS:BY S.DALI
MANY investors would be indifferent to investing in large cap stocks and small cap stocks. The inherent dangers of investing in small caps need to be investigated so that investors have a better grasp of the risks involved.
There is a very popular local fund manager who has performed admirably, largely thanks to his picks in mid and large caps. However, his track record was compromised somewhat by his picks among small caps; in fact, it was pretty dismal.
The biggest attraction of small caps is the huge growth potential. Most successful large cap companies started at one time as small businesses. Small caps give the individual investor a chance to get in on the cheap. Everyone talks about finding the next Genting, YTL or IOI Corp. However, the reality is that very few small caps make the grade.
It is certainly easier to grow from a market cap of RM100mil to RM500mil but it's a totally different scale to grow from RM1bil to RM5bil. At some point you just can't keep growing at such a fast rate due to restrictions in the sector size.
While there are some funds that do invest in small caps, by and large the majority of funds are averse to them. That's because the fund would have to be small in size to invest in small caps. If you are managing a US$500mil fund, it's difficult to have sizable positions in small caps. No fund manager wants to look at 100 companies in their portfolio – the monitoring costs are too overwhelming. For mid size to large funds, to invest successfully in small caps would require hitting a lot of home runs every year – a debilitating task.
The coverage on small caps would also be scant at best. Lack of coverage means lack of exposure. Lack of exposure means the stock will not appear on their radar screen. What this means to the individual investor is that, because the small-cap universe is so under-reported or even undiscovered, there is a high probability that small-cap stocks are improperly priced, or usually under-priced.
The biggest drawback to investing in small caps is in the management. Typically, they comprise entrepreneurs who built the company from scratch to its listing capacity. We have to differentiate between people who had a great idea and those who have the ability to grow a company.
Statistics reveal that these entrepreneurs hold onto the company for far too long and do not have the expertise to take the business to the next level. It takes more professionalism and market savvy to turn a RM100mil company into a RM500mil company. Too many entrepreneurs are unwilling to appoint more professional managers, or are blinkered of the need to do so.
There are varying notions of what constitutes a small cap company. In the US, it is generally regarded as companies with market cap of less than US$500mil (which would be regarded as a mid cap in Malaysia and most of the smaller South East Asian countries).
Truth is, there are no hard and fast rules. I would categorise small caps in Malaysia as those with a market value of below RM500mil (because there are just so many of them) and then have another category for those under RM300mil as micro-caps. If we were to push the threshold higher, it would envelope the majority of stocks on the Bursa.
To better spot the better small caps is to examine the company's strategy and execution ability. First, the business needs to be scalable. Secondly, the company must know its market, competitors and its competitive edge. It also must have a clear plan to grow organically or via acquisitions. In addition, there must be increasing professionalism in the way business is run – be it at management or board level. There must exist a clear understanding of cost and capital requirements. Last but not least, is the execution ability. There should be goalposts or milestones marked and reached.
Small caps are able to ride a wave better because they are more agile given their size. The crunch comes when there is a recession or dramatic slowdown in their sector. Many small caps will perform well in a bullish environment but wither easily when the wind blows harder.
A lot of small companies arise from carving a niche in technology. However these companies also suffer swiftly from technology improvements and trend changes. Most do not have sufficient resources to commit at such an early stage into research & development in order to stay ahead of the development and technology curves.
Small caps usually do not pay much dividend as most of its profits will be reinvested to fund growth. This is an additional risk as no or little yield will mean investors would be buying for pure capital appreciation.
My final thought on the issue is that through my observation, I have noticed a certain danger of complacency among owners of small caps. Many entrepreneurs are satisfied once they get their companies listed on the stock exchange. In Malaysia, many of these owners stand to make RM10mil-RM50mil following a listing. Indeed, an attractive sum that can tempt many to “retire” and lose their drive to elevate the company.
MANY investors would be indifferent to investing in large cap stocks and small cap stocks. The inherent dangers of investing in small caps need to be investigated so that investors have a better grasp of the risks involved.
There is a very popular local fund manager who has performed admirably, largely thanks to his picks in mid and large caps. However, his track record was compromised somewhat by his picks among small caps; in fact, it was pretty dismal.
The biggest attraction of small caps is the huge growth potential. Most successful large cap companies started at one time as small businesses. Small caps give the individual investor a chance to get in on the cheap. Everyone talks about finding the next Genting, YTL or IOI Corp. However, the reality is that very few small caps make the grade.
It is certainly easier to grow from a market cap of RM100mil to RM500mil but it's a totally different scale to grow from RM1bil to RM5bil. At some point you just can't keep growing at such a fast rate due to restrictions in the sector size.
While there are some funds that do invest in small caps, by and large the majority of funds are averse to them. That's because the fund would have to be small in size to invest in small caps. If you are managing a US$500mil fund, it's difficult to have sizable positions in small caps. No fund manager wants to look at 100 companies in their portfolio – the monitoring costs are too overwhelming. For mid size to large funds, to invest successfully in small caps would require hitting a lot of home runs every year – a debilitating task.
The coverage on small caps would also be scant at best. Lack of coverage means lack of exposure. Lack of exposure means the stock will not appear on their radar screen. What this means to the individual investor is that, because the small-cap universe is so under-reported or even undiscovered, there is a high probability that small-cap stocks are improperly priced, or usually under-priced.
The biggest drawback to investing in small caps is in the management. Typically, they comprise entrepreneurs who built the company from scratch to its listing capacity. We have to differentiate between people who had a great idea and those who have the ability to grow a company.
Statistics reveal that these entrepreneurs hold onto the company for far too long and do not have the expertise to take the business to the next level. It takes more professionalism and market savvy to turn a RM100mil company into a RM500mil company. Too many entrepreneurs are unwilling to appoint more professional managers, or are blinkered of the need to do so.
There are varying notions of what constitutes a small cap company. In the US, it is generally regarded as companies with market cap of less than US$500mil (which would be regarded as a mid cap in Malaysia and most of the smaller South East Asian countries).
Truth is, there are no hard and fast rules. I would categorise small caps in Malaysia as those with a market value of below RM500mil (because there are just so many of them) and then have another category for those under RM300mil as micro-caps. If we were to push the threshold higher, it would envelope the majority of stocks on the Bursa.
To better spot the better small caps is to examine the company's strategy and execution ability. First, the business needs to be scalable. Secondly, the company must know its market, competitors and its competitive edge. It also must have a clear plan to grow organically or via acquisitions. In addition, there must be increasing professionalism in the way business is run – be it at management or board level. There must exist a clear understanding of cost and capital requirements. Last but not least, is the execution ability. There should be goalposts or milestones marked and reached.
Small caps are able to ride a wave better because they are more agile given their size. The crunch comes when there is a recession or dramatic slowdown in their sector. Many small caps will perform well in a bullish environment but wither easily when the wind blows harder.
A lot of small companies arise from carving a niche in technology. However these companies also suffer swiftly from technology improvements and trend changes. Most do not have sufficient resources to commit at such an early stage into research & development in order to stay ahead of the development and technology curves.
Small caps usually do not pay much dividend as most of its profits will be reinvested to fund growth. This is an additional risk as no or little yield will mean investors would be buying for pure capital appreciation.
My final thought on the issue is that through my observation, I have noticed a certain danger of complacency among owners of small caps. Many entrepreneurs are satisfied once they get their companies listed on the stock exchange. In Malaysia, many of these owners stand to make RM10mil-RM50mil following a listing. Indeed, an attractive sum that can tempt many to “retire” and lose their drive to elevate the company.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Asia File
UNKNOWN to many, Asia File Corporation Bhd is the largest player in the local stationery and office supplies market, specialising in making file dividers and indices. It is actually Malaysia's largest integrated stationery and office supplies manufacturer and distributor, commanding 60% of the domestic market share. As an own brand manufacturer (OBM) in the domestic market, Asia File sells its products under the `ABBA' brand name, which is probably where it is better known among the millions of office workers in the country.
And the company has been going global for some time, with the United States and United Kingdom markets making up most of its sales. Over the years, Asia File has expanded its business overseas, which now contributes more than 70% of its revenue, with the two largest markets being the US and Europe (mainly UK). Yet, despite its global reach and strong product demand, the equity market had somewhat lost interest in the stock, with the share price trading range-bound over the last four years at between RM4.00 and RM6.00.
Rumour had it that there were some family disputes in the management of the company, which is controlled by the Lim family now headed by Executive Chairman Michael Lim Soon Huat, and the company had somewhat lost some direction. Profits were still pretty good even then, probably reflecting the resilience of its business, although they were flat at around RM30 million over the same period. However, Asia File is apparently coming back with a bang, having recently acquired one of the larger players in its market in Europe on the cheap.
According to a recent investment report by CIMB Research, Asia File is set to record a strong compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% over the next three years, as it will be the largest original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in its segment in Europe with the acquisition.
An old hand in the business
Established in 1961, Asia File has been in the stationery business for more than four decades, and today dominates the local industry with a 60% market share. Asia File manufactures and distributes stationery products for both the domestic and export markets and has a vast range of products, the main ones being dividers, lever arch files and ring files, which contribute close to 70% of its current group revenue.
It exports to more than 80 countries, mainly as an OEM and also as an OBM. The largest markets for its products are the UK and the US, which collectively make up more than half of the group’s revenue. Asia File’s manufacturing and headquarters base is in Penang, where the group has a total of three factories, ie, in Permatang Tinggi (200,000sf in size), Bayan Lepas (260,000sf) and Sungai Pinang (60,000sf). Asia File also operates a major warehouse in Puchong in the Klang Valley and in Basingstoke, UK. The average utilisation rate of its factories is said to be 70%-75%, according to CIMB Research.
Listed since 1996
Asia File first got listed in 1996 on the second board of Bursa Malaysia before upgrading itself to the main board in 2000. The company is currently majority-owned by dominant shareholder, Prestige Elegance Sdn Bhd, which holds 47.2% of the group. Prestige is 50.01% owned by Executive Chairman Lim, who is said to take a very hands-on approach towards the group’s domestic and export operations.
The group has also garnered some institutional support and has a number of large institutional shareholders. These include the Arisaig Asean Fund (14.9%), the NT Asian Discovery Fund (6.2%) and Great Eastern Life Assurance (Malaysia) (3.7%). According to CIMB Research, the foreign shareholding in Asia File is currently at around 22%, which could rise further if investors take note of the fact that the group’s major income actually comes from overseas, mainly Europe.
Major breakthrough in Europe
The new excitement in the group stems from its recent acquisition of Plastoreg (PTG), Europe’s largest OEM manufacturer of indices and dividers. According to an industry observer, Asia File has long been on the lookout to acquire stationery companies in Europe and the US as part of its plans to expand its distribution network in these markets. The breakthrough came recently in September 2007, when it grabbed the opportunity to buy over PTG in an attempt to further tap into Europe’s Euro 20 billion (RM96 billion) stationery market. PTG is an OBM in Europe, selling its products under the `INDX’ brand.
PTG has a long history in the business similar to Asia File. The company is also family-run and started operations back in the 1970s. It has today two production plants in Kirchgandern and Witzenhausen, located on the borders of East and West Germany. Both the plants, which total around 30,000sf, are only 15km apart and only need 48 hours to access major European Union (EU) markets by truck.
PTG’s sales are mainly in Europe, with Germany being its largest market at 41% of its total sales. According to CIMB Research, the company has more than 700 customers, mainly international office supply retailers or promotional ring-binder producers. PTG sells mainly standardised products (70% of sales) while bespoke products make up the balance 30%.
Analysts are mainly positive on the acquisition, noting the fact that outside the UK, Asia File’s revenue from Europe is only 1% of total group sales. For one, CIMB Research notes that while Asia File has successfully penetrated the UK market and is currently one of the top-three players in filing products there, the fact is that it only started making inroads into this market in the past few years despite having been in the UK since the late 1980s. With PTG, Asia File will, in one fell swoop, have an extensive distribution network in Europe and the UK, saving its years of relying on just organic growth.
With PTG in the fold, CIMB Research estimates that the new group will in the future make close to 80% of its sales overseas compared to around 60% currently (see Chart 1).
Attractive purchase price
The acquisition will cost Asia File Euro 13.8 million (RM66.2 million), which analysts say is quite an attractive price for a major European stationery company with an extensive distribution network across Europe. The group has net cash of around RM60 million and hence, it would not be a problem for Asia File to pay for the acquisition, which was expected to be completed by last year.
At the price, CIMB Research estimates that Asia File is buying PTG only at around 5.0x one-year forward price earnings (PE) multiple and at 2.2x price to net tangible assets (NTA). The payback period is expected to be three to five years and with PTG under its umbrella, Asia File is expected to be the world’s largest OEM producer and distributor of indices and dividers, producing close to 1.0 billion pieces annually. It’s, thus, not a surprise that the investment community is taking a re-look at the company.
PTG is also said to be managed very efficiently. The company currently has 130 employees and generates an annual revenue per employee of close to RM1.0 million, 4.0x that of Asia File, says CIMB Research. Its plants are also running at full capacity and have orders for more than six months in advance so much so that PTG is looking to invest Euro 2 million (RM9.6 million) in 2008 to expand its production capacity. In addition, PTG’s key board members and senior management are also expected to remain in the company even after Asia File’s acquisition to ensure continuity in its operations.
Additional synergies?
Apart from an increase in the size of its market for Asia File, there is also apparently synergy in product mix and costs as well. At the moment, PTG only produces dividers and indices whereas Asia File manufactures a host of products like lever arch files, binders, polypropylene products, manila files and paper products. As such, analysts believe that Asia File could easily use PTG’s distribution network in Europe to sell its other products.
CIMB Research thinks that there could also be major cost savings and economies of scale once PTG comes on board. According to the research unit, PTG currently sources its raw material and intermediate products like mylar and polypropylene films from third- party suppliers. As Asia File also produces these raw materials, the enlarged group could potentially save up to Euro 2 million (RM9.6 million) annually just by supplying in-house to PTG. This could lead to better pricing discounts and rising operational utilisation rates for the whole group.
Risks
Despite the apparent benefits of PTG, CIMB Research also cautions that given the larger presence of the group sales from overseas, short-term volatility in the foreign exchange rate (forex), especially that of the US dollar, could affect Asia File’s profit margin in the immediate term, as there is a lag period of around two to three months before the group would be able to pass on any cost increases to its customers. To minimise this impact, Asia File has plans to hedge its forex exposure.
There is also the risk that a price war could start between PTG and its rivals in Europe, although it’s not likely Asia File would want to resort to such an action although its competitors’ actions are less predictable. A global slowdown in the US and Europe could also, needless to say, affect the group’s sales going forward since its markets are now predominantly in those markets and users are likely to cut back on office and stationery supplies in any business slowdown.
What could Asia File be worth?
CIMB Research is bullish on the group’s acquisition of PTG and believes that Asia File is undervalued despite its share price having almost doubled to around RM9.75 at the time of writing in the last several months from its four-year trading range of RM4.00-RM6.00 (see Chart 2). In fact, the research unit has an end-FY08 price target of RM15.60 for the stock, basing it on still a reasonable CY09 target PE multiple of 13.0x for regional stationery stocks. The main catalyst would probably be the estimated strong 40% growth in the group’s CAGR by the research unit.
Notwithstanding the risks inherent in owning a stock whose share price has risen so rapidly, retail investors, meanwhile, could also likely be attracted to the company’s upcoming proposed 3:5 bonus issue, which should see more liquidity in its trading on the local bourse. With its growth likely muted domestically, Europe seems to be a good place for the group to make its comeback to the limelight, that is as long as it sticks to doing what it knows best in the stationery business.
By: James from: FindArticles - Hot European Foray
Malaysian Business, Jan 1, 2008, by James S
And the company has been going global for some time, with the United States and United Kingdom markets making up most of its sales. Over the years, Asia File has expanded its business overseas, which now contributes more than 70% of its revenue, with the two largest markets being the US and Europe (mainly UK). Yet, despite its global reach and strong product demand, the equity market had somewhat lost interest in the stock, with the share price trading range-bound over the last four years at between RM4.00 and RM6.00.
Rumour had it that there were some family disputes in the management of the company, which is controlled by the Lim family now headed by Executive Chairman Michael Lim Soon Huat, and the company had somewhat lost some direction. Profits were still pretty good even then, probably reflecting the resilience of its business, although they were flat at around RM30 million over the same period. However, Asia File is apparently coming back with a bang, having recently acquired one of the larger players in its market in Europe on the cheap.
According to a recent investment report by CIMB Research, Asia File is set to record a strong compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% over the next three years, as it will be the largest original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in its segment in Europe with the acquisition.
An old hand in the business
Established in 1961, Asia File has been in the stationery business for more than four decades, and today dominates the local industry with a 60% market share. Asia File manufactures and distributes stationery products for both the domestic and export markets and has a vast range of products, the main ones being dividers, lever arch files and ring files, which contribute close to 70% of its current group revenue.
It exports to more than 80 countries, mainly as an OEM and also as an OBM. The largest markets for its products are the UK and the US, which collectively make up more than half of the group’s revenue. Asia File’s manufacturing and headquarters base is in Penang, where the group has a total of three factories, ie, in Permatang Tinggi (200,000sf in size), Bayan Lepas (260,000sf) and Sungai Pinang (60,000sf). Asia File also operates a major warehouse in Puchong in the Klang Valley and in Basingstoke, UK. The average utilisation rate of its factories is said to be 70%-75%, according to CIMB Research.
Listed since 1996
Asia File first got listed in 1996 on the second board of Bursa Malaysia before upgrading itself to the main board in 2000. The company is currently majority-owned by dominant shareholder, Prestige Elegance Sdn Bhd, which holds 47.2% of the group. Prestige is 50.01% owned by Executive Chairman Lim, who is said to take a very hands-on approach towards the group’s domestic and export operations.
The group has also garnered some institutional support and has a number of large institutional shareholders. These include the Arisaig Asean Fund (14.9%), the NT Asian Discovery Fund (6.2%) and Great Eastern Life Assurance (Malaysia) (3.7%). According to CIMB Research, the foreign shareholding in Asia File is currently at around 22%, which could rise further if investors take note of the fact that the group’s major income actually comes from overseas, mainly Europe.
Major breakthrough in Europe
The new excitement in the group stems from its recent acquisition of Plastoreg (PTG), Europe’s largest OEM manufacturer of indices and dividers. According to an industry observer, Asia File has long been on the lookout to acquire stationery companies in Europe and the US as part of its plans to expand its distribution network in these markets. The breakthrough came recently in September 2007, when it grabbed the opportunity to buy over PTG in an attempt to further tap into Europe’s Euro 20 billion (RM96 billion) stationery market. PTG is an OBM in Europe, selling its products under the `INDX’ brand.
PTG has a long history in the business similar to Asia File. The company is also family-run and started operations back in the 1970s. It has today two production plants in Kirchgandern and Witzenhausen, located on the borders of East and West Germany. Both the plants, which total around 30,000sf, are only 15km apart and only need 48 hours to access major European Union (EU) markets by truck.
PTG’s sales are mainly in Europe, with Germany being its largest market at 41% of its total sales. According to CIMB Research, the company has more than 700 customers, mainly international office supply retailers or promotional ring-binder producers. PTG sells mainly standardised products (70% of sales) while bespoke products make up the balance 30%.
Analysts are mainly positive on the acquisition, noting the fact that outside the UK, Asia File’s revenue from Europe is only 1% of total group sales. For one, CIMB Research notes that while Asia File has successfully penetrated the UK market and is currently one of the top-three players in filing products there, the fact is that it only started making inroads into this market in the past few years despite having been in the UK since the late 1980s. With PTG, Asia File will, in one fell swoop, have an extensive distribution network in Europe and the UK, saving its years of relying on just organic growth.
With PTG in the fold, CIMB Research estimates that the new group will in the future make close to 80% of its sales overseas compared to around 60% currently (see Chart 1).
Attractive purchase price
The acquisition will cost Asia File Euro 13.8 million (RM66.2 million), which analysts say is quite an attractive price for a major European stationery company with an extensive distribution network across Europe. The group has net cash of around RM60 million and hence, it would not be a problem for Asia File to pay for the acquisition, which was expected to be completed by last year.
At the price, CIMB Research estimates that Asia File is buying PTG only at around 5.0x one-year forward price earnings (PE) multiple and at 2.2x price to net tangible assets (NTA). The payback period is expected to be three to five years and with PTG under its umbrella, Asia File is expected to be the world’s largest OEM producer and distributor of indices and dividers, producing close to 1.0 billion pieces annually. It’s, thus, not a surprise that the investment community is taking a re-look at the company.
PTG is also said to be managed very efficiently. The company currently has 130 employees and generates an annual revenue per employee of close to RM1.0 million, 4.0x that of Asia File, says CIMB Research. Its plants are also running at full capacity and have orders for more than six months in advance so much so that PTG is looking to invest Euro 2 million (RM9.6 million) in 2008 to expand its production capacity. In addition, PTG’s key board members and senior management are also expected to remain in the company even after Asia File’s acquisition to ensure continuity in its operations.
Additional synergies?
Apart from an increase in the size of its market for Asia File, there is also apparently synergy in product mix and costs as well. At the moment, PTG only produces dividers and indices whereas Asia File manufactures a host of products like lever arch files, binders, polypropylene products, manila files and paper products. As such, analysts believe that Asia File could easily use PTG’s distribution network in Europe to sell its other products.
CIMB Research thinks that there could also be major cost savings and economies of scale once PTG comes on board. According to the research unit, PTG currently sources its raw material and intermediate products like mylar and polypropylene films from third- party suppliers. As Asia File also produces these raw materials, the enlarged group could potentially save up to Euro 2 million (RM9.6 million) annually just by supplying in-house to PTG. This could lead to better pricing discounts and rising operational utilisation rates for the whole group.
Risks
Despite the apparent benefits of PTG, CIMB Research also cautions that given the larger presence of the group sales from overseas, short-term volatility in the foreign exchange rate (forex), especially that of the US dollar, could affect Asia File’s profit margin in the immediate term, as there is a lag period of around two to three months before the group would be able to pass on any cost increases to its customers. To minimise this impact, Asia File has plans to hedge its forex exposure.
There is also the risk that a price war could start between PTG and its rivals in Europe, although it’s not likely Asia File would want to resort to such an action although its competitors’ actions are less predictable. A global slowdown in the US and Europe could also, needless to say, affect the group’s sales going forward since its markets are now predominantly in those markets and users are likely to cut back on office and stationery supplies in any business slowdown.
What could Asia File be worth?
CIMB Research is bullish on the group’s acquisition of PTG and believes that Asia File is undervalued despite its share price having almost doubled to around RM9.75 at the time of writing in the last several months from its four-year trading range of RM4.00-RM6.00 (see Chart 2). In fact, the research unit has an end-FY08 price target of RM15.60 for the stock, basing it on still a reasonable CY09 target PE multiple of 13.0x for regional stationery stocks. The main catalyst would probably be the estimated strong 40% growth in the group’s CAGR by the research unit.
Notwithstanding the risks inherent in owning a stock whose share price has risen so rapidly, retail investors, meanwhile, could also likely be attracted to the company’s upcoming proposed 3:5 bonus issue, which should see more liquidity in its trading on the local bourse. With its growth likely muted domestically, Europe seems to be a good place for the group to make its comeback to the limelight, that is as long as it sticks to doing what it knows best in the stationery business.
By: James from: FindArticles - Hot European Foray
Malaysian Business, Jan 1, 2008, by James S
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
SAMGOSS再谈一些些关于PE :
有人说高本益比表示这公司前景很好，这样说表示他只知道低本益比是股价/每股净利，而不是一百巴仙了解什麽是低本益比的优势。 Repco 在1993年的全盛时期，以 〉100 的本益比交易，告诉我它有何美好前景？大多数的中国股票都在 〉60 买卖时，不觉得已经超价了吗？泡沫形成了吗？还是觉得中国公司以及他们的warrant 都有高前景，高盈利保障。
叫人买入高本益比股项其实是叫人买入超价或昂贵的股票。
低本益比股项要飚升就要看未来盈利。如未来盈利保持，你会有温和的回酬 ，但肯定好过定存。要是盈利超越预期的突飞猛进，回酬将是惊人的。但是如你预测的盈利变成亏损，低本益比也会死翘翘（如MEGAN).
但是高本益比股项会死得更难看，因为你在顶价买入!既然盈利预测错误，两者都会死，为何要选择高本益比的呢？想一想，你以为你在买卖美国股？你在买Coca-Cola 还是 Wallmart?即使Wallmart的本益比〉50 也已不值得买入。
给你一个典型的例子：GREEN PACKET
那些在RM 4.50以听谣言投机买进的人其实是以44 的本益比（要命的超高）买入 ，但谣言成谎言后，最新的盈利又跌，它的股价就跌，跌，跌跌不休到今天RM 2.28 左右。你看，买进高本益比是多麽糟的事。即使在2。28 ，PE 还是17，比起单位数PE的Masteel,Liondiv 及Mahsing，还不算便宜。
本益比的计算：为什麽要跟从报章或证券行，如果他们都不一样？这证明他们不是不了解什麽是本益比，就是根本不会算。
自己算！这有什麽困难？为什麽会有不同的本益比？很简单，有些证券行用去年的净利来计算，有些用一，二或三个季的净利计算。要用那一个才对呢？去年的本益比当作，利用现在的净利来预测来年的本益比。
例子：去年本益比：6.42
这个季的净利有改善（扣去一次性的盈利贡献，如有）及它的未来盈利前景好（钢铁或石油业）
我们可以理性的预测来年的PE 会更低。这里只是举例说明，不是建议买卖。
Masteel at 1.45（18/4/2008）
叫人买入高本益比股项其实是叫人买入超价或昂贵的股票。
低本益比股项要飚升就要看未来盈利。如未来盈利保持，你会有温和的回酬 ，但肯定好过定存。要是盈利超越预期的突飞猛进，回酬将是惊人的。但是如你预测的盈利变成亏损，低本益比也会死翘翘（如MEGAN).
但是高本益比股项会死得更难看，因为你在顶价买入!既然盈利预测错误，两者都会死，为何要选择高本益比的呢？想一想，你以为你在买卖美国股？你在买Coca-Cola 还是 Wallmart?即使Wallmart的本益比〉50 也已不值得买入。
给你一个典型的例子：GREEN PACKET
那些在RM 4.50以听谣言投机买进的人其实是以44 的本益比（要命的超高）买入 ，但谣言成谎言后，最新的盈利又跌，它的股价就跌，跌，跌跌不休到今天RM 2.28 左右。你看，买进高本益比是多麽糟的事。即使在2。28 ，PE 还是17，比起单位数PE的Masteel,Liondiv 及Mahsing，还不算便宜。
本益比的计算：为什麽要跟从报章或证券行，如果他们都不一样？这证明他们不是不了解什麽是本益比，就是根本不会算。
自己算！这有什麽困难？为什麽会有不同的本益比？很简单，有些证券行用去年的净利来计算，有些用一，二或三个季的净利计算。要用那一个才对呢？去年的本益比当作，利用现在的净利来预测来年的本益比。
例子：去年本益比：6.42
这个季的净利有改善（扣去一次性的盈利贡献，如有）及它的未来盈利前景好（钢铁或石油业）
我们可以理性的预测来年的PE 会更低。这里只是举例说明，不是建议买卖。
Masteel at 1.45（18/4/2008）
- 前年(2006)每股净利= 22.56cents 本益比 = 145/22.56 = 6.42
- 去年(2007)如果只算三个季的每股净利= 4.97+10.79+8.04=23.08 cents
- 本益比已经有145/23.08 = 6.28
好过2006 整年，而这只是三个季报而已，还有一季没算，这样我们就能预测masteel2007年的本益比会低于2006年。而果然如此，第四季有8.42 cents,所以
- 去年(2007)每股净利= 31.50 cents 本益比= 145/31.50 = 4.6
所以告诉我，自己算本益比有什麽困难的？
也许你要等到市场大崩盘，PBB , PPB, Maybank, IOIcorp, YTL, Genting , Digi ,SD , IJM , KNM ,Resorts..这些蓝筹股都跌到本益比 <>
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