Why Warren Buffett chose Coca-Cola

GIVEN the weak stock market, we think now is the best time to search for the good and solid blue-chip stocks for long-term investment. However, most investors always have difficulties in choosing the right stocks.

Today, we will look into how world famous investment guru Warren Buffett identified his favourite stocks. At present, The Coca-Cola Co is one of Buffett’s key stocks that he will practically hold forever.

We believe a lot of investors would like to know why Buffett chose Coca-Cola as one of his key long-term holdings when one Wall Street analyst at that time labelled it as a “very expensive stock”.

Established in 1886, Coca-Cola is the world’s largest manufacturer, marketer and distributor of carbonated soft drink concentrates and syrups. At present, it operates in more than 200 countries and markets more than 2,800 beverage products. Besides, it also owns four of the world’s top five non-alcoholic sparkling beverage brands: Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Sprite and Fanta.

Why did Buffett choose Coca-Cola? He likes caffeinated soft drinks. He acquired 7% of Coca-Cola stocks in 1988 for a total investment of US$1.02bil or at an average price of US$5.46 per share. As at Dec 31, 2007, Berkshire Hathaway owned 200 million Coca-Cola stocks, or 8.6% of the company’s outstanding shares.

Buffett’s original cost in this company was US$1.3bil. Based on the latest market value dated Dec 31, 2007, he achieved an annual compounded capital gain of 11.9% for 20 years. However, if we include all the dividends received, we believe his return from this stock may be more than 20% per annum!

Buffett considers Coca-Cola “inevitable” where it has low business risk and is suitable for long-term holding. To him, buying Coca-Cola has far less business risk over the long term than any computer company. Being the most recognised international trademark, Coca-Cola enjoys global power with very high competitive dominance and economies of scales.

Coca-Cola sells 1.5 billion servings everyday worldwide. As a result of its strong brands, the attributes of its products and the global distribution systems, it has a very high business consistency and performance throughout the years. Given the certainty of its long-term prospects, Buffett may choose to hold this stock forever.

He also finds that Coca-Cola has a simple and understandable business. Besides, Buffett likes to acquire companies with high profit margins and return on equity (ROE). When he acquired Coca-Cola in 1988, it reported a pre-tax profit margin and ROE of 19% and 31.8% respectively.

Apart from that, Coca-Cola also showed very high cash flow or “owner earnings”. Buffett defined owner earnings as reported earnings plus depreciation and certain other non-cash charges, minus the average annual capital expenditures required for a company to maintain its unit volume and competitive position. In 1988, the company showed an increase in owner earnings to US$828mil against US$262mil in 1981.

Buffett always advises investors to study the raw data in the financial statement and trust our own eyes rather than analysts’ summaries. When Buffett acquired Coca-Cola, he paid quite a high premium compared with the overall market average. He paid about 15 times and five times for Coca-Cola based on price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio respectively.

Given the strong performance and certainty in management quality, Buffett felt highly confident that he would be rewarded by the management’s ability to generate more owner earnings and to realise the full potential of the business.

A good company should pay dividends to its shareholders. If the company decides to retain its earnings for future expansion, every dollar it retains must translate into one-dollar market value. Buffett labels this as a one-dollar premise.

Since 1987, apart from paying good dividends, the overall market value of Coca-Cola has surged much higher that its retained earnings.

In summary, even though it is not easy to identify the next Coca-Cola, with hard work, the current downturn provides us a golden opportunity to hunt for good fundamental stocks for long-term holdings.