全球價格及需求看漲‧全利資源成長料“三級跳”

大馬財經 2008-10-13 18:46


（吉隆坡）著重衛生及品質的全利資源（QL,7084,主板消費品組），不時跑在市場前端，分析員估計，此公司擁有寬大的市場開發空間。

分析員表示，魚肉醬及魚料食品價格展望看俏，加上全球價格及消費走漲，相信全利資源未來的成長會“三級跳”。

另一方面，全球魚肉醬庫存目前處於偏低水平，全利資源高層預計整體的需求量仍然殷切。

達證券認為，全利資源是大馬4家公司當中，在包裝前通過X光機械營運魚肉醬的公司，確保產品沒有外來物或魚骨。

比較其他業者，此公司也力求創新，確保走在市場前端，儘管是東南亞最大規模的魚肉醬生產商，但仍然開拓業務，並以區域為市場目標。

進軍印尼魚肉醬生產

全利資源已進軍印尼泗水的魚肉醬生產，總投資約800萬美元，預計在今年杪動工。公司也密集研發，以改善產品；為滲透馬來市場，此公司也增設新生產線，即冷凍海產炸餅，預計對賺幅作出大約20%的貢獻。

“此公司擁有全方位的價值鏈，所有的材料都沒有浪費，每天的魚類產品平均生產量大約是250公噸，每個月對營業額作出2500萬至3000萬令吉的貢獻。”

此公司在數月前的產量已趨高，預計營業額也穩步走高，達證券表示，此公司很快將擴大出口市場。

相比全球同儕，全利資源的市值規模較小而出現10%的折價，其市場加權平均2009本益比為9.6倍，意味此股合理價值高達3令吉52仙，擁有巨大的上漲空間。

此股今日（週一，10月13日）收市挂2令吉49仙，跌4仙。

星洲日報／財經‧2008.10.13

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/17203

寻找优良普通股的15个要点

要点（1）：这家公司的产品或服务有没有充分的市场潜力，至少几年内营业额能否大幅成长?
要点（2）：为了进一步提高总体销售水平，发现新的产品增长点，管理层是不是决心继续开发新产品或新工艺？
要点（3）：和公司的规模相比，这家公司的研究发展努力，有多大的效果？
要点（4）：这家公司有没有高人一等的销售组织？
要点（5）：这家公司的利润率高不高？
要点（6）：这家公司作了什么事，以维持或改善利润率？
要点（7）：这家公司的劳资和人事关系是不是很好？
要点（8）：这家公司的高级主管关系很好吗？
要点（9）：公司管理层的深度够吗？
要点（10）：这家公司的成本分析和会计记录做得如何？
要点（11）：是不是在所处领域有独到之处？它可以为投资者提供重要线索，以了解此公司相对于竞争者，是不是很突出？
要点（12）：这家公司有没有短期或长期的盈余展望？
要点（13）：在可预见的将来，这家公司是否会大量发行股票，获取足够的资金，以利公司发展，现有持股人的利益是否因预期中的成长而大幅受损？
要点（14）：管理层是不是只向投资者报喜不报忧？诸事顺畅时口沫横飞，有问题或叫人失望的事情发生时，则“三缄其口”？
要点（15）：这家公司管理层的诚信正直态度是否无庸置疑？

全球经济欠佳削减需求 棕油短期展望蒙尘

二零零八年十月五日 晚上六时四十五分


（吉隆坡5日讯）虽然棕油价格已下跌至大幅低过大豆油的水平，但是植物油库存增加以及投资基金对波动不定的原产品购兴减低，棕油价格可能拖延至明年才会复苏。

在3月触及历来高价位后，棕油价格在6个月内已滑跌一半，相对于大豆油的折扣扩大超过1倍至每公吨450美元（1553令吉）；触发市场谈论着棕油价格已太快的滑跌至太低水平以及将会回弹。

但是分析师说，在大马与印尼的棕油产量增加以及在中国与印度的谷物丰收，将推高供应以及减低出口需求。加上金融危机日益恶化，投资基金最近撤离价格大幅波动的资产。

联合种植有限公司（UTDPLT，2089，主板种植组）执行董事马汀贝尼申说：“惊慌已逼使投资基金以及投资者抛售棕油。当库存增加，出口减少以及全球经济疲弱时，目前是现金称王。”

棕油价徘徊2400令吉水平

在美国采用更多大豆油制造生物柴油以及在拉丁美洲生产超量的忧虑，将有助于今年已滑跌大约13％的大豆油在接着数个月内回升至每磅45至48仙。但是棕油价格将在每公吨2000至2400令吉区间徘徊至明年第2季为止，因为该季产量开始减少。

棕油是作为食用油以及生产化妆品以至生化柴油，在3月4日触及历来最高价位4486令吉后迄今已滑跌55％。最近由于违约，影响了棕油销售。

棕油价格滑跌已冲击东南亚的种植业股票，这类股票曾经一度受到投资者追捧。

随着棕油价格由顶峰纪录回跌后，该行业佼佼者例如凯业集团有限公司（IOICORP，1961，主板种植组）已下跌大约47％。印尼最大的挂牌上市种植业者Astra Agro Lestari Tbk已剧跌60％，而新加坡挂牌上市的丰益国际有限公司（Wilmar International）已滑跌将近40％。

印尼与大马联合占了大部分的全球棕油产量。分析师预测该两国在2008年生产大约3800万公吨棕油，比较早前预测高了8至10％。

中国印度减少采购棕油

与此同时，原产品购兴减低以及最大的植物油消耗国，中国与印度减少采购。这将使到该两国在12月之前的库存超过500万公吨，是历来之最。

排在中国之后的全球第2大食用油进口国，印度盼望夏季栽种的谷物丰收。中国有大量棕油供应，全国库存预测可足够至今年底为止。

印度溶剂协会执行董事BV Mehta说，大豆将会丰收，由11月开始棕油需求将减少。印度的大豆产量今年可能高达1200万公吨纪录，而中国预测生产将近1800万公吨大豆。

中国，欧洲以及其他国家通常在冬季来临前的数个月减少食用棕油，因为在寒冷气温的热带产品会凝固。

大马经纪商Pelindung Bestari执行董事S.柏拉马林甘说：“从数字来看，棕油最终库存将高达500万公吨，这是从未见过的。目前更大的忧虑是出口减少，10月将是与9月同样恶劣。”货运检验行SGS的数据显示，大马棕油产品出口在9月剧减将近5份之1至大约120万公吨。

在数年前协助棕油摆脱阴影的生化柴油近期内不会带来支援。

虽然棕油价格已下跌至低点，不论是在车辆或是发电机内焚烧是符合经济效益的；但是赚幅仍然太低，不足以推动任何大规模转化。

棕油制成品甲醇酯或是生化柴油在大马报价每公吨大约790美元，而与生化柴油竞争的瓦斯油在邻国新加坡每公吨售价815美元。此外，在马来西亚政府没有训令混和，将阻碍投资者恢复他们的商业计划。

IJM种植展延建棕油厂无限期展延兴建产量9万公吨工厂的IJM种植有限公司（IJMPLNT，2216，主板种植组）首席执行员维拉裕丹陈说：“只是因为原油价格下跌，你不能就急切的投入生化柴油行业，它是太过反复无常。我们选择谨慎，因为大马没有明确决策推行生化柴油政策。”

如果在华尔街的危机触发经济衰退导致能源耗量疲软，生化柴油将是次要选择以及不会受到政府与投资者优先考虑。

在澳洲挂牌上市的Mission Biofuels董事经理纳登马哈林甘说：“各国政府继续找寻变数的恰当组合，例如油价高涨以及充足原料供应。 但是目前石油价格可能更快下跌，棕油生化柴油可能没有诱因。”

与棕油竞争的大豆油预料也不会推高棕油，因为它占有的优势是更普遍的采用来制造生化柴油以及产量存有忧虑。

植物油工业分析师MR贞德兰说，巴西经历了严重湿度不足以及在阿根庭长久干旱；大豆油价格更高也是由于更多大豆油是用在生化柴油。

与大豆油不同的是，较少棕油是用来制造生化柴油，只占了少过5％的全球4000万公吨产量。 在美国生产的超过20％大豆油被转化为生化柴油。

http://www.kwongwah.com.my/news/2008/10/05/85.html

亚洲文件夹期望 美国销售额会增加

二零零八年十月五日 晚上六时四十三分


（吉隆坡5日讯）文件夹产品制造商--亚洲文件夹有限公司（ASIAFLE，7129，主板消费产品组）集团主席林顺发（译音）称，有鉴于美国仍然拥有成长空间，公司期望它在该市场份额能有所增加。

他称，美国的市场销售额可为公司带来约15%的贡献。

据林氏称：“公司将会在美国寻找新的客户，以及为在该处的现有客户促销公司的新产品。”

这是林氏于最近在出席公司常年代表大会后，而向记者作了如是称。

他称：“我们将在美国寻找一间新货仓，因为该处的产业价格已下跌。”

林氏称，公司在美国是将其产品直接交到客户手中。

他称：“我们在美国所面对的竞争者，计有全球产品供应商如Avery，Acco与Esselte。”

公司的产品，有60%是出口到欧洲，另外13%的产品是供大马销售。

http://www.kwongwah.com.my/news/2008/10/05/81.html

具64%升值空间 建裕珍厂可续买进

二零零八年十月三日 晚上十时五十九分


（吉隆坡3日讯）基于反映比环球行业同侪较小市场资本的10%折价后，达证券行认为建裕珍厂有限公司（KIANJOO）的平均本益比约为10.8倍，或相等于目标价1.84令吉，这较现有股价出现57%的潜在赚益。

在包括7.0%周息率的总资本升值达到64%的支持下，该证券行已重申买进建裕珍厂。

它称，在上个季度里，建裕珍厂取得大跃进，收益按季锐升了54.6%。

尽管成本包括电费和燃料价格上涨，该公司仍可维持其利润水平。据管理层透露，其影响相当低微。

在其越南经营方面，建裕珍厂管理层暗示，它的进度非常顺利，目前该国经营已经超越年杪100万美元的目标。

另外，其54.83%子公司大马纸盒有限公司（BOXPAK，6297，主板工业产品组），也已完成其新厂建筑，该厂现正着手设备装置，并预定在年杪开始操作。

达证券行指出，这间新厂将迎合越南和澳洲市场，同时将使现有每月3800公吨纸浆产能增加约25%。

与此同时，建裕珍厂的出口已经提高，主要是来自普通铝罐和印制板供应。

该证券行表示，这些产品出口至香港、爱尔兰和中东等地，基于70%产能由本地市场支配，其出口贡献将有庞大成长潜质。

它说，建裕珍厂09财政年度的动力仍是来自其与日本Nihon包装，在越南联合包装业务的联营。

这项联营将在09年第2季以原厂设备方式开始操作。

其Microflex罐装科技生产线的销售已经带来成绩，因客户群已经测试，并暗示将拥有更多订单，尤其是在明年。

这项科技将耗资700万至800万美元，每年的生产量达到2亿5000万个。

不过，由于面对原料短缺问题，建裕珍厂必须对客户作出选择。但管理层相信，由于商品价格已经呈现下跌趋势，其价格也将会放软。

http://www.kwongwah.com.my/news/2008/10/03/104.html

Yinson to handle Vietnam’s new port

Saturday October 4, 2008
By ZAZALI MUSA

Lim Han Weng


JOHOR BARU: Yinson Holdings Bhd is expanding to Vietnam where it will offer port transportation and related activities.

Managing director Lim Han Weng said its subsidiary Yinson Vietnam Pte Ltd would handle the activities at the new port in Hongtou, about 100km from Ho Chi Minh City.

The medium-sized port is currently being built by Petrovietnam subsidiary PTSE and is slated for completion by year-end.

“Prospects are good in port transportation in Vietnam due to the booming economic growth,” Lim told StarBiz in an interview.

He said that prior to awarding the handling activities at the port, PTSE had a firsthand look at Yinson’s operations at Johor Port, Port of Tanjung Pelepas and West Port.

He said PTSE’s decision was based on Yinson’s capability and expertise in providing a supply chain management in transportation and logistics.

Lim said the main problem faced by ports in Vietnam now was the average waiting time for vessels, which could stretch up to two weeks.

He said the log jam was caused by the inefficiency in cargo clearing.

Lim said the long waiting time at the ports in Vietnam could dampen the country’s economic growth and Yinson Vietnam was looking to reduce it to five days.

He said Hongtou Port would be different from others in that country as it would offer a full range of services. They include trucking, warehousing, shipping, customs clearance as well as sorting of goods and materials.

“Apart from handling transportation activities at the port, we are committed to attracting shipping companies to use the port for import and export,” said Lim.

A small boat sails near a port in Ho Chi Minh City. Prospects are good in port transportation in Vietnam due to the booming economy — AFP

He said Yinson’s involvement at the new port would pave the way for the company to extend its services to other existing and new ports to be built in Vietnam.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/10/4/business/2151019&sec=business

2500萬擴產計劃年杪完成‧亞洲文件機構收成果

大馬財經 2008-09-17 11:39


（吉隆坡）亞洲文件機構（ASIAFLE,7129,主板消費品組）涉資2500萬令吉的國內外擴產計劃，預定今年杪完成並從明年開始貢獻收入。

美元回升彌補英鎊下降損失

同時，此公司業務以出口為導向，美元匯率近期回升對盈利正面，而且，還可彌補因為英鎊匯率走貶而蒙受的出口損失。

達證券近期走訪亞洲文件機構管理層，獲知此公司的德國和檳城廠房擴產計劃最新發展，而同時落實的生產設施重組計劃，也將在2009年杪看到生產線效率提昇15%的成績

在上述擴產計劃中，1500萬令吉將擴建德國廠房，其餘供檳城廠房擴大生產線。

亞洲文件機構的收入70%來自出口，外匯波動風險牽動盈利表現，美元和英鎊過去兩個月匯率此起彼落，美元挺升6%，英鎊走貶5%。

管理層坦承，英鎊下跌對出口盈利負面，英鎊佔出口收入25%，然而，管理層認為目前仍沒必要為英鎊護盤，但會觀察進一步發展。

無論如何，美元收入佔出口50%，美元近期回升足以彌補英鎊下降的損失。

另一方面，此公司計劃將持有20.3%權益的慕達控股（MUDA,3883,主板工業產品組）志賬，以提昇集團盈利水平，惟需要等待稽查師批准。管理層指出看好慕達控股生產的工業紙張和紙皮符合國際水準，將加強國際市場的議價能力。

9月份銷售展謹慎

文件夾原料價格開始下跌，但管理層對9月份的銷售展謹慎，估計將延續8月表現，8月銷售額按年增長5%，基於美國經濟放緩，出口美國銷售僅取得15%適中成長率。

達證券估計，德國子公司Plastoreg2009財政年貢獻40%營業額，但英鎊表現疲軟，或衝擊賺幅從原本26至34%，減至26至30%。

無論如何，Plastoreg的協作效應和銷售價格優化，估計Plastoreg2011年回酬率從目前9至11%，提高至介於18至22%。

基於股票流通率處在健康水平，管理層指出，目前沒有拆細股票必要，也和此公司業務的較佳抗不景氣能力有關。

達證券根據現有表現和擴產計劃，加上最近一季盈利符預期，看好亞洲文件夾2009年淨利可達7000萬令吉，較2008年騰漲71%。

達證券指出，亞洲文件機構市值規模較小，以致其8.6倍的本益比較區域折價20%，而維持5令吉80仙目標價；其8.2%的週息率和近27%的資本增值潛能而維持“買進”評級。

星洲日報／財經‧2008.09.17

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/16550

國內業務受挫 LCL迪拜投資賺錢

2008年9月17日


報導 - 林玉梅

(吉隆坡16訊)大馬建築和產業市場萎縮，令從事室內設計業務的LCL機構(LCL，7177，主板貿服股)也一如其它承包商般蒙受打擊，但是「失之東隅，收之桑榆」，分析員預料，該公司可從迪拜市場獲得重大盈利。

合約訂單將大增

分析員認為，在今年結束前，LCL機構從迪拜市場取得的合約訂單將大增，即價值6億9500萬令吉的室內裝置合約。

近來迪拜的合約淨利幅度為13%至15%，並有著成長的機會。

在國內業務方面，自大選後，建築工程不斷展延和取消，令LCL機構飽受衝擊，分析員預測，該集團在08和09財政年，將會分別蒙受1000萬和700萬令吉的虧損。

慶幸的是，從明年開始，國內業務對該集團的營業額貢獻，預料是低於10%的比重。

同時，LCL機構放眼在09年，將該集團在迪拜的業務，尋求在迪拜交易所上市。

分析員認為，這是一個正面的消息，因為中東的投資者會更瞭解LCL機構在該區域的巨大潛質。

基於上述的因素，分析員給予LCL機構「超越大市」的評級，目標價格為1.29令吉。

http://www2.orientaldaily.com.my/press.php?TASK=news&TYPE=LBZ&NEWS=27FV0vC008I68ATJ0KGZ9FeJ19d174aI

增分店延長營業時段刺激銷售額 肯德基盈利預測調高

2008年9月17日


報導 - 賴薇夷

（吉隆坡16日訊）儘管肯德基(KFC，3492，主板貿服股)面對成本不斷增加而影響其賺幅，但該公司以增設分店及延長營業時間等方式，來刺激銷售額增長，分析員因此調高該公司的銷售成長及盈利預測。

肯德基正計劃在今年開設30家新分店，及在09至10財政年，開設另20至22家。截至今年8月為止，該公司在全馬有422家餐廳、汶萊8家，及新加坡71家。其中，在大馬有100家是24小時經營，有20家提供駛入購買服務。

分析員指出，該公司的同店面銷售（SSS）成長顯著，08上半年為止，按年上漲17%。主要是因為其餐廳食物售價從07年11月至08年4月，提高了2%、有100家餐廳24小時營業，及大選期間的高額銷售。不過，其賺幅卻有所減少，主要因為24小時餐廳運作的額外成本。

另外，該公司的新家禽處理廠房預計將在08年杪完成，每月的處理量為140萬隻雞。再加上該公司現有的兩家工廠，其每月的處理量，可增至440萬隻。

雖然如此，分析員認為，該公司還必須面對禽流感爆發、玉米及黃豆價格不斷增加而減低賺幅，及消費能力的縮減，將影響其同店銷售成長等的風險。

綜合來看，分析員調高每家餐廳的營業額預測，從之前的5%，增至08全年的17%，及09全年的10%，而2010年則維持5%的預測。

此外，分析員也將該公司08至10年的未計算利息和稅項之收入(DEBIT)增加至9.3至10%。因此，該公司08至10年的盈利預測將增加1.8至6.7%。

拉昔胡申分析員認為，肯德基有非常強穩的連鎖經營權及46%的高市占率，並在高成本架構下，推出創意策略以刺激銷售，及擁有5800萬令吉現金流的負債表。

分析員認為該股還有潛力，並調高該股的合理價至7.60令吉，投資評級為「與大市同步」。

http://www2.orientaldaily.com.my/press.php?TASK=news&TYPE=LBZ&NEWS=2qP100xj06v68sdx03Ez9iRa1Vs37Wf9

現金流量大‧周轉能力強

投資廣場 2008-09-08 13:34


公司的投資活動主要有三個目的：

第一、為公司正常的生產經營奠定基礎。

第二、為公司對外擴張和其他發展性的目的進行權益性投資和債權性投資。

第三、利用公司暫時不用的閑置資金進行短期投資，以求獲取較高的投資收益。

在這個月的中，前兩個月的一般都應該和都應該和公司的長期規劃和短期計劃相一致。第三個月的在很多情況下是公司的一種短期理財安排。

股票投資人在分析投資活動時，一定要注意分析是對內投資，還是對外投資。

對內投資的現金流出量增加，意味著固定資產、無形資產等的增加，顯示公司正在擴張；如果對內投資的現金流量大幅增加，表示公司正常的經營活動還未能充份吸納現有的資金，資金的利用效率有待提高；對外投資的現金流入量大幅增加，意味著公司現有的資金不能夠滿足經營的需要，從外部引入了資金；要是對外投資的現金流出量大幅增加，說明公司正在通過非主營業務活動，來獲取收益。

三、籌資活動產生的現金流量

所謂籌資活動就是指致公司資本及債務規模和構成發生變化的活動。這裡所講的“資本”，包括實收資本（股本）、資本溢價（股本溢價），包括實收資本（股本）、資本溢價（股本溢價）；“債務”是指公司所借入的款項，它與通常所說的負債是兩個不同的概念，它特指公司對外舉債融資，如債券的發行與償付、信貸資金的借入和償還等。

籌資活動產生的現金流量主要包括如下的項目：

1.吸收投資所收到的現金

吸收投資所收到的現金，包括以發行股票，債券（可轉換和不可轉換）等方式籌集的資金實際收到的款項淨額。

2.借款所收到的現金

借款所收到的現金是公司從金融機構借入的資金，它的數額的大小，在一定程度上代表了公司所具有的商業信用程度。

3.收到的其他與籌資活動有關的現金。

這一個項目，反映公司除了上述的各項目之外，收到的其他與籌資活動有關的現金流入，如接受現金損增等。

4.償還債務所支付的現金

這個項目反映公司以現金償還債務的本金，包括償還銀行借貸的本金、償還債券本金等。

5.分配股息、利潤或償還利息所支付的現金。

這個項目反映公司實際支付的現金股息，支付給其他投資單位的利潤，以及支付的借貸利息、債券利息等。

6.支付的其他與籌資活動有關的現金。

這個項目反映公司除了上述各個項目之外，支付的其他與籌資活動有關的現金流出，如損增現金支出，融資租入固定資產支付的租賃費等等。

密切關注公司的現金流量表是為了及時清楚地瞭解公司的發展情況。如果現金流量大，那麼資金周轉能力強，公司盈利多，股息便會增加，公司前景亮麗，股票價格就會水漲船高；相反的，公司周轉不靈，業務衰退，盈利由盈轉虧，股價價格也就隨之節節敗退。

星洲日報／投資廣場／基本分析你要學‧2008.09.08
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/16302

從損益表看公司盈虧

投資廣場 2008-07-13 18:44


一個精明的股票投資人，在決定選購一家公司的股票之前，一定會全面瞭解這家公司各方面的情況，特別是這家公司的經營管理水平、經營業績、財務資料等情況。只有全面瞭解各種情況，才能恰當地確定公司的合理價格，然後通過比較該公司股票市價與合理價格的差異進行投資。

評估公司股價低買高賣

具體地說，當投資人對一家公司股票的估價比市價低，意味著該股價值沒有被市場充份地發掘，也就是股票價值被市場“低估”了，這時候，投資了選購這隻股票，經過一段時間的持有，待市場正確估價這隻股票後，該股的市價便會逐漸超越它的實際價值。如此這般，投資人便能低價買進高價賣出，從而賺取價差利潤。

同樣的道理，如果投資人對一家公司的股票的估價低，而市場價格比它高得多，意味著市場“高估”了這隻股票。由於該股的市價缺少基本面的支持，遲早會跌至它的實際價值邊沿。因此，對這隻股票在價格回退之前，不適宜買進。

由此可見，選購股票之前，一定要分析公司各方面的情況，其中主要分析公司基本因素和財務狀況。在公司的財務報表中，精明的投資人最關心的就是損益表。

損蓋表既反映了公司淨利潤的形成過程，又體現了利潤的計算過程。在公司的財務報表中，損益表能夠給予投資者一個很重要而又最容易明白的數字：公司的盈利和虧損，損益表凹資產負債表有一個最大的不相同的地方，資產負債表是反映會計年度最後一天的資產及負債餘額，而損益表卻反映在一個會計年度，通常是12個月內一家公司的收入、費用、收益和虧損，最後顯示出凈利潤或凈虧損。

損益表3大功能

損益表可分為3大功能：

一、可以反映公司的盈利水平，平價公司的盈利能力

公司在生產經營過程中所獲取的各種收入、所作出的各種開銷費用，以及生產經營所賺取的最終業績，都可以通過損益表中有關項目集中地顯示出來。人們可清楚地瞭解公司的優劣、公司利用所擁有的經濟資源獲取利潤的能力，從而評價公司經營管理的水平和評價經營者的績效。

二、可以預測公司在未來期間的發展趨勢

在公司的損益表中列明了上年度和本年度全年累計的資料，通過損益表提供的不同時期的比較數字，可以瞭解公司的盈利水平的變動，經營成果的發展趨勢，以便讓股票投資人作出合理的投資決策，也可以讓外頭的銀行或其他的機構通過對損益表的分析，依據公司的盈利能力決定是否向公司提供借貸或進行投資，以及借貸或投資的規模等。

三、可以分析公司的損益形成的原因

通過損益表提供的資料，同時結合其他的報表，還可進一步掌握公司的盈利或虧損的重要原因，綜合反映利潤的形成和分配的情況，年終未分配利潤的結余情況，公司的償債能力，以及有關項目的周轉效率等。

星洲日報／投資廣場／基本分析你要學‧2008.07.13
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/14707

從損益表衡量公司前景

投資廣場 2008-07-27 19:05


股票價格是上市公司的影子，公司的獲利能力、償還能力、成長能力、經營狀況等是決定該公司股票價格的基礎。投資人在進行股票投資時，需要對有關公司的盈利能力、經營與發展情況有所瞭解，我們可以從年報中獲得這些資料，從而衡量公司的前景，這樣才能在一大籃子的雞蛋中挑選出真正的“金雞蛋”。

損益表是一個歷史時期對照的動態報告，它通過揭示公司的損益表項目，反映公司某個時期的業務經營狀況，取得利潤的能力和經營趨勢。因此，損益表對投資人分析評價公司的實力與前景，進行投資決策，具有重大的意義。

“收入─費用＝利潤”

投資人可以看件解讀損益表的基本思路。當我們看到一份損益表時，應注意以下4個部份，它們分別是：

一、營業收入
二、營業利潤
三、利潤總額
四、凈利潤

先從損益表上方開始，“營業收入”，也稱為營收，或叫做業務利潤。營業收入或營收是一段時間內，公司提供顧客的一切產品或服務的金額。

所以營業收入是指公司銷售產品和提供勞務等主要經營業務取得的收入總額。公司的營業收入越高，獲利的機會越大。這是反映上市公司獲利能力和經營水平的一個重要指標，是我們分析上市公司利潤構成的核心指標。

營業收入的特點

營業收入對公司是非常重要的，它反映了公司在一定時期內所取得的成就。營業收入是由公司從事生產經營活動而得來的，它可能引起資產的增加，也可能引起公司原有債務的消失，或者二者兼而有之。營業收入具有以下的特點：

一、收入是從公司的日常活動中產生的，而不是從偶發的交易或事項中產生，如工商企業銷售商品、提供勞務的收入等。有些交易或事項也能公司帶來經濟利益。然而，它不屬於公司的日常活動；它流入的經濟利益是利得，而不是營業收入。

例如出售固定資產，因固定資產是為使用而不是為出售而買進的，將固定資產出售並不是公司經營目標，也不屬於公司的日常活動，因此，出售固定資產取得的收益不作為營業收入核算。

有別於投資收入

此外，收入是公司通過它自身的生產經營活動所獲得的收入。因此，它也有別於從投資活動中分得的投資收入。當然，這是就一般公司來說的，如果是投資公司，投資收入將是主要經營活動的收入，構成營業收入。

二、相關的收入和成本能夠可靠地計量，收入能否可靠地計量，是確認收入的基本前提，收入不能可靠地計量，那麼就無法確認收入。

損益表主要包括營業收入、營業開銷、稅前營業盈利或虧損。稅項：稅後盈利或虧損、少數股東權益，特別項目、可分配盈利、股息、本年度保留盈余、每股收益等。因此，損益表綜合反映了收入、成本與利潤分配的情況，是股票投資人分析上市公司經營業績所必不可少的參考資料。

投資人看過了公司的資產負債表和損益表之後，對該公司的實力、經營規模、盈利情況等等有了一個基本的瞭解，從而對它的股票價值，也就能作出初步的評估。

星洲日報／投資廣場／基本分析你要學‧2008.07.27
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/15189

現金流量表──上市公司的“驗血報告”

投資廣場 2008-08-04 11:45


甚麼是現金流量表？一位財務顧問Paul J.Hoeper曾經提出一個很好的，而且易於解釋的定義：“現金的流入量與流出量就好像一家公司的脈搏，現金流量表顯示了一家公司的資金運用與資金來源，它非常類似一家事務所對賬的匯總表。”

不過，依據現金流量的用途以及它的使用者之不同 ，還有幾種定義。從年度財務報告表述的內容來看，Hoeper先生的定義是最為適用的。

現金流量表是以現金為基礎編制的反映公司財務狀況變動的報表。現金流量表以現金的流入和流出反映公司在一定期間內的經營活動、投資活動和籌資活動的動態情況，以及公司現金流入和流出的全貌，表明公司獲得現金和現金等價物的能力。

《執行者》作者Ram Charan和Jerry Useem在《財富》雜誌上曾寫道：“公司營運衰退的原因有很多種，然而，最後拖垮一切的，都是因為現金消耗完了。”

大部份的管理者過於重視損益表上的稅前息前折舊攤銷的收益等數字，不太注意賬戶上現金的多寡。董事會與外部的分析師有時也太重視損益表或資產負債表。

許多投資者不理解，我們已經有了資產負債表來反映上市公司的資產狀況，又有損益表來反映上市公司的經營業績，為甚麼還要編制一個現金流量表呢？現金流量表對投資者有甚麼好處呢？

反映公司創造淨現金流量能力

有人打了一個形象的比方，如果把現金看作是公司日常運作的“血液”，那麼現金流量表就好比上市公司的“驗血報告”，可以清楚地反映出公司創造凈現金流量的能力，更為清晰地揭示公司資產的流動性和財務狀況。

有位神奇的股票投資者非常重視現金流，他就是有股神之稱的巴菲特（Warren Buffett），原因何在？因為巴菲特認為現金是難以捏造的。

巴菲特特別重視現金流量

巴菲特是至今為止最成功的投資者，他的公司波克夏哈薩威（Berkshire Hathaway）投資幾十家公司，投資績效非常驚人。巴菲特是怎樣辦到的？許多人寫書試圖解釋他的投資哲學和分析方法。然而，我認為他的投資理念可歸納出3項簡單的規則：

第一、他是依據長期展望而不是短期前景評估一家公司。
第二、他只注意他瞭解的公司，因此，他避開了網絡泡沫化。
第三、他分析公司的財務報表時，最重視現金流量的計算，他稱之為業主收益（Owver earnings）。巴菲特的財務智慧已經進升到全新層次，他的公司淨值也反映出這一點，對他來說，就是現金至上。

巴菲特為什麼特別重視現金？

因為現金讓公司能夠順暢繼續營運。公司無法用盈餘去支付員工的薪金，各種的開銷如水費、電話費、電費、所得稅等。盈餘不是真的錢，現金才是真金白銀，同時現金是無法捏造的，是衡量公司財務的關鍵。

“現金”和“盈餘”有差別

巴菲特深知資產負債表和損益表不管再怎樣有用，它們的假設和估計都會產生許多潛在的偏差，可能會造成資產負債表和損益表資料的扭曲，相比之下，採用現金流量表卻是一種可選的方案。“現金”畢竟跟“盈餘”有差別，檢視公司的現金流量表，就是間接檢查公司的銀行賬戶。

現金流量表的優點如下：

一、不受非現金項目會計處理的影響。
二、代表著該年度的現金收入。
三、可以揭示出在損益表中未涉及的項目。

星洲日報／投資廣場／技術分析你要學‧2008.08.04
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/15502

瞭解現金流量表的概念意義

投資廣場 2008-08-11 20:21


盈利是公司生存和發展的基礎，而現金卻是公司日常經營中的“血液”。在日益崇尚“現金至尊”的現代理財環境中，分析現金流量表對投資人來說顯得更為重要。

觀察現金流量表，首先應瞭解現金的概念。現金流量表中的現金是廣義的現金概念。現金流量表中的現金是指庫存現金。如何區分“現金”和現金等價物呢？

庫存現金是隨時可支付的存款

所謂庫存現金是指隨時可以支付的存款，同會計核算中的“現金”、“銀行存款”和“其他貨幣資金”基本上是一致的。

應該注意的是，銀行存款和其他貨幣資金中有些不能隨時用於支付的存款，如不能隨時支取的定期存款等，不應作為現金，而應列作投資；如果提前通知銀行便可支取的定期存款，那應包括在現金範圍內。一般就是資產負債表上“貨幣資金”項目的內容。

准確地說，就是應剔除那些不能隨時動用的存款，如保證金專項存款等。

現金等價值物流性強

何謂現金等價物？現金等價物就是指在資產負債表上“短期投資”項目中符合以下條件投資：

1.持有的期限短；
2.流動性強；
3.易於轉換為已知金額的現金；
4.價值變動風險很小。

現金等價物的主要特點是流動性強，是可以隨時轉換成現金的投資，通常是指購買三個月或更短時間內就到期或就可以轉換為現金的投資。

現金流量表具有以下幾項重大意義：

一、可以瞭解公司的經營發展階段

用當期公司的現金流入除以現金流出，得出的比值大於1，說明公司的現金流入大於流出。特別是經營活動產生的現金流量的流入、流出比值，更能顯示公司的經營周期處於甚麼樣的循環中。因為當一家公司處於蓬勃向上的周期，必然經營活動中收入比付出要多。

二、可以瞭解公司的成本管理水平

用當期經營活動產生的現金流出量除以主營業務成本，得出的比值大小，可以從一個側面反映公司的成本費用管理水平，如果小於1，顯示公司主營業務成本的現金支付率低，能夠利用財務杠杆，參與成本費用的核算與管理，在節能降耗上很有辦法和技巧，由於成本費用低，利潤就高；如果大於甚至遠大於1，情況正好相反。

三、可以瞭解公司的現金銷售能力

用當期現金及現金等價物淨增加額與經營活動產生的現金流量淨額，分別除以當期實現的淨利潤，主營業務收入，得出比值，分別可以反映報告期內實現的淨利潤是以多少比例的現金形式存在，以及發出與銷售商品的貨款回籠率，便能表示公司的現金銷售能力。

四、可以反映公司的主營業務強弱程度

現金流量有三大項目，即經營活動、投資活動、籌資活動，如果用經營活動產生的現金淨額除以三大項目活動在內的，現金及現金等價物淨增加額，得出的比值，可以大致了解公司主營業務當前的興衰程度，以及佔本公司各種經營活動的比重。只要現金流入大於流出，就可顯示公司的主營業務相當優越。

盈利是公司獲得現金淨流入的根本源泉，而獲得足夠的現金，那就是公司創建優良的經營業績的有力支撐。現金流量表就是向報表使用者提供有關現金流入、流出情況及其原因的報表。

星洲日報／投資廣場／基本分析你要學‧2008.08.11
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/15643

現金流量表提供現金訊息

投資廣場 2008-08-18 14:01


股票投資者選購股票，一般上是看重上市公司的盈利能力。然而，如果公司不能歸還到期的債務，無論公司的盈利前景如何，都可能面臨資金周轉不靈而出現問題。通過現金流量的變化，能夠反映現金是從哪裡來的，又流到哪裡去了，這些情況是資產負債表和損益表所不能反映的。

投資者瞭解公司的現金流入流出及其原因說明時，便可以對上市公司的股票作進一步的瞭解。現金充足的公司，它償還債務的能力和支付股利的能力也會相應更強，發展的前途也更為廣闊。

編制現金流量的目的，是為會計報表使用者提供公司一定會計期間內現金及現金等價物流入和流出的信息。它的主要作用簡單分述如下：

一、現金流量表能夠顯示公司一定時期內現金流入和流出的原因。

資產負債表反映公司一定時期的財務狀況，損益表說明公司一段時期的經營成果，而公司流動性最強的現金之流入和流出的多寡，這兩張財務報表並沒有交代。

現金流量劃分3主要部份

現金流量表就彌補了這個不足之處，它將現金流量划分為3個主要部分，即為經營活動，投資活動和籌資活動所產生的現金流量，同時依據流入現金和流出現金項目分別反映出來，並說明現金流入與流出的原因，清楚地交代現金來源於甚麼地方，又用在什麼地方。

二、現金流量表能夠說明公司償債的能力

一般上，財務報表的使用者比較關注公司的獲利情況，特別是投資者和債權人。獲利情況一般通過損蓋表反映出來，然而，公司一定時期獲取的利潤並不代表公司有償債或支付能力。為甚麼這麼說呢？這是由於公司的會計利潤是依據權責發生制核算的，它與現金流的含義不一樣，它往往不是同時發生的。

會計意義上的稅後盈利不是公司實際得到的現金。例如銷售收入並不是公司實際收到的現金。

折舊和攤銷是非現金費用

再說按會計制度，在運輸工具，廠房和設備上的資本支出要在後續若干年內提取折舊，折舊要從每年的應稅收入中減去，從而減少了會計利潤；然而，從現金流的角度看，運輸工具，廠房和設備的資本支出在當初已經產生，所以折舊和攤銷本身不是現金流，而是非現金費用，也就是說既不是現金流入，也不是現金流出，只是由於稅法允許它可沖減應稅收入。折舊和攤銷在公司有盈利的條件下，會減少納稅金額，以減少納稅的方式間接帶來現金流入。

反映收入和成本發生時間

現金流正確反映了收入和成本發生的時間，即是甚麼時候收到錢，甚麼時候可以用於再投資，或是甚麼時候必須支出。因為現金流量表完全以現金收支為基礎，這就可消除由於會計核算采用的權責發生制，配比原則等估計產生的獲利能和支付能力。

現代企業的一個重要特征就是適度負債經營。公司的負債率越高，償債能力就越弱。舉債成為公司籌集資金的重要方式。債權人是至願意為公司提供短期與長期貸款，除了要考慮能否及時獲取提供資金的報酬之外，就很關注資金到期回收的安全性，它是債權人獲取回報的前提。如果連本金都不能安全回收，那就更談不上獲取的回酬。債權人出於本身的權益，不得不關注公司的償還能力。

現金流量表完全以現金的收支為基礎，通過現金流量表能夠了解公司現金流量的構成，分析公司償債和支付股利的能力，增強投資者的投資信心，以及債權人收回債權的信心。

星洲日報／投資廣場／技術分析你要學‧2008.08.18
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/15795

從現金流量看未來獲現能力

投資廣場 2008-08-25 13:44


三、現金流量表能夠分析公司未來獲取現金的能力。

一般上，投資者和債權人最為關注的是公司經過一般時間經營後，是不是有足夠的現金來支付未來期間的貸款和利息，償還各種到期的債務、營運的開銷，以及擴大生產經營規模，現金獲取的途徑等等，現金流表能顯示公司現金進出的情況，它由以下的三方面反映出來：

（一）經營活動產生的現金流量

經營活動產的現金流量，代表公司運用經濟資源創造現金流量的能力，便於分析一定期間內產生的凈利潤與經營活動產生現金流量的差異。

比如，當銷售商品、提供勞務收到的現金收入與產品銷售收入的差額較大時，往往與應收款項的增減有關，如產品銷售收入超出較多，一般上表示應收款項增加，它將形成公司未來的經營活動現金流入；相反的，表示前期的應收款項在本期實現了現金收入，未來這方面的獲現能力將減弱。

經營獲現能力較強的公司，籌資能力一般也較強，並且為投資活動提供了物質基礎，有利於增強公司未來的投資獲現能力。

（二）投資活動有助產生現金流量

投資活動產生的現金流量，顯示公司運用資金產生現金流量的能力。在收回投資所收到的現金流入較多時，必將影響未來收入的股息利潤以及取得債券利息的獲現能力。

在權益性和債權性投資所支付的現金流出較多時，將為未來獲取投資活動現金流入奠定基礎，對內投資的大量現金流出，將有利於公司的經營活動，一般會提高未來獲現能力；相反的，會影響公司的未來獲現能力。

（三）籌資活動產生的現金流量

籌資活動產生的現金流量，代表公司籌資獲得現金流量的能力。

通過現金流量表和其他的財務信息，可以分析公司未來獲取或支付現金的能力，如公司通過銀行借款籌得的資金，在本期現金流量表中反映為現金流入，然而，這卻意味著來償還借款時要流出現金。對本期應收入而未收的款項，在本期現金流量表中不反映為現金流入，但是卻預示著未來將會有現金流入。

分析現金流量表的籌資活動現金流量，本期舉債籌資的現金流入，將是未來償還債務的現金流出；吸收資本的現金流入，也引起未來支付股利的現金流出。

基本上，籌資活動的大量現金流入，一般有利於公司的經營活動，從而在一定程度上增強公司未來經營獲現的能力。籌資活動的現金流出，特別是償還債務的大量現金流出，又為未來籌資活動的現金流入創造了條件。

公司的未來獲現能力，可以這麼說，它總是與本期或前期的現金流量有著不可分割的關係。本期的現金流入，往往是前期現金流出的回報，有時又是後期現金流出的成因；本期的現金流出，往往是前期現金流入的補償，有時又是後期現金流入的遞延。

我們也可以這麼說，某類活動的現金流量，又會影響另一類活動的獲現能力。現金流量表的這種因果關係是非常明顯的，內容格外豐富，投資者只要仔細分析，就可以獲得很多有用的信息。

星洲日報／投資廣場／技術分析你要學‧2008.08.25
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/15966

現金流量3大分類

投資廣場 2008-09-02 11:35


瞭解现金流量表的結構

現金流量表反映了流入與流出公司的現金，前者稱為現金流入（Inflow），後者稱為現金流出（outflow）。現金流量表主要由三大部分構成：

一、經營活動產生的現金流量（CFO）
二、投資活動產生的現金流量（CFI）
三、籌資活動產生的現金流量（OFF）

以上三大部份的每一種活動現金流量又分別揭示流入與流出總額，使會計信息更具明晰性和有用性。只有對現金流量進行合理地分類，才能在現金流量表中既全面地反映公司總的現金流入與流出的情況，又分別地反映各項業務活動所導致的現金的流入和流出的情況。

也只有這樣，才能分析公司現金流量增減變動的原因，從而為投資決策提供全面而又具體的依據。以下是由三個部分構成的現金流量表之簡要說明：

一、經營活動產生的現金流量

經營活動是指公司投資活動和籌資活動以外的所有交易和事項，它涵蓋與實際營運相關的一切現金流入和流出，包括顧客支付賬款時所收到的現金，連同公司支付的薪金、供應商賬款、租金等等現金，以及一切為了開門營業，讓生意持續運作所需支付的其他現金。在經營活動現金流量分類中，可具體地關注如下的項目：

1.銷售商品、提供常務收到的現金；
2.收到的其他與經營活動有關的現金；
3.收到各項返還的稅費；
4.購買商品、接受勞動支付的現金；
5.支持給職工以及為職工支付的現金；
6.支持的各項稅費；
7.支付的其他與經營活動有關的現金。

經濟活動的現金流量大小，反映公司本身獲得現金的能力，是公司獲得資金持續來源的主要途經。一般上，經費活動收入穩定是公司營運良好的重要標誌。上市公司經營活動產生的淨現金流量應為正數，反映公司經營進入良性循環，而現金流入的比重越大，說明公司的財務狀況越穩健，經營越成功。

二、投資活動產生的現金流量

投資活動產生的現金流量，是公司在投資活動中所產生的現金流入量和現金流出量。

投資活動的現金流量包括以下幾個項目：

1.收回投資所收到的現金；
2.取得投資收益所收到的現金；
3.處置固定資產、無形資產和其他長期資產所收回的現金淨額；
4.收到的其他與投資活動有關的現金；
5.購建固定資產、無形資產和其他長期資產所支付的現金；
6.投資所支付的現金；
7.支付的其他與投資活動有關的現金。

投資活動現金流量情況反映了公司投資規模的擴張和收縮的情況，同時反映了投資活動中的對內投資和對外投資的關係。

一般上，投資活動中對內投資的現金淨流出量大幅度提高拜反映了公司為拓展經營所作的努力，意味著公司面臨著的發展機遇，即將步入快速增長的階段，同時投資人還可以從中大致瞭解公司的投資方向。

一家公司從經營活動和籌資活動中獲得現金是為了今後發展創造條件。現金不流出，是不能為公司帶來經濟效益的。當然錯誤投資決策也會事與願違，因此，公司的管理層必須要求投資的項目能夠如期產生經濟效益和現金流入。

星洲日報／投資廣場／技術分析你要學‧2008.09.01
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/16158

默默耕耘不断磨练 Jobs潜能不容忽视

二零零八年八月三十一日 晚上七时三十六分


线上征聘网Jobs机构有限公司（JOBST，0058，主板贸易服务组）在2007年创下2900万令吉净盈利。对它来说，这个数字象征着该公司的盈利能力。

其首席财务员格烈博茨表示：“当我们于2004年首次上市时，许多人都对我们可达到400万令吉净盈利心存怀疑，而我们也承诺将会尝试。”

该公司也明显取得超越预测的卓越成长，从2002年的1250万令吉收益，晋至2007年达到8240万令吉高峰。

去年65%的大部分收益是来自马来西亚，而余额则由海外市场贡献。

在截至3月31日止的首季，Jobs机构的净盈利跃增75%至1050万令吉，而营业额则锐涨41%至2500万令吉。

该公司的净盈利，也从前季的33.3%扩大到41.5%，同时坐拥5960万令吉现金，或相等于每股现金20仙。

Jobs机构首席执行员郑文基表示：“在业务方面，我们将没有任何资本开销。唯一的成本是我们的电费。”

在其立场上，Jobs机构有9个国家共拥有约6万名广告客户和500万名求职者。每天，它平均吸收5000至6000名新求职者进入其资料库。

它在马来西亚独占鳌头，享73%市场份额。它在菲律宾排名第一，及与新加坡市场领导JobsDB密切合作。

单在今年，Jobs机构已经收购数家公司股权， 以进一步加强其于区域的地位。

郑文基称：“我认为我们将会收购其他求职网站，因我知道我们的成长将会越来越好。我相信线上广告市场将在未来20至30年内趋成熟。”

“这是亚洲的时代，这个地区的成长将超越其他洲。这意味着亚洲的才能和工作将会增加。互联网渗透率也将只会提高。”

业务不受经济衰退影响

郑文基补充，线上征聘工业不受衰退影响，这可从Jobs机构在1997年金融危机和2001年经济泡沫市况不佳时刻收益依然取得成长显见。

他说：“在这些不佳时期，人们开始考虑利用线上广告，因这非常廉宜。透过互联网，你只需要支付600至800令吉。”

郑文基指出，线上广告的好处相当多，因雇主可随时改变其广告，及追踪申请人数。

Jobs机构的商业模式相当简单：即向有意刊登征聘广告的雇主收取费用，并且不会对成功征聘或资料库额外修改作出额外收费。

海外业务伸展至9个国家

因此，从2002年资料库内只有130万名求职者，到今日它于9个国家已吸引了500万名求职者。在同时期，Jobs机构的征聘雇主人数也由1万1000名，提高到5万名。

在马来西亚已有400万至500万名受雇者，而Jobs机构的资料库内拥有约120万人。普遍上，线上征聘公司将享有强劲收益成长，因雇主已把它们的征聘广告从平面转移到线上。

线上征聘的另一个优势是广告商可更迅速和更有系统地获得回应。

在Jobs机构主导的市场（马来西亚、新加坡和菲律宾），它有能力支配市场率，从而促进利润。
郑文基补充，资讯工艺领域非常迅速变动，科技每一分钟都在改变。

博茨指出：“我们现在正专注于建立一个强稳基建，这表示这个系统将时常更新。一旦这个基建执行，它将可轻易进军一个新市场。”

他补充，Jobs机构每年都拨款400万至500万令吉于研究与发展用途。

目前，Jobs机构的客户大部分是跨国和大规模的本地公司。数据显示，90%受雇工人涉及中小型工业。

郑文基透露：“我们现在尝试涉足中小型企业，因它们与大规模公司非常不同，价格也将会不一样。”

今年内，Jobs机构将继续加强其现有海外市场地位。该公司品牌现已进军马来西亚、新加坡、菲律宾、印度、孟加拉、印尼、日本和泰国。

它也在香港和台湾公司拥有协同性投资。

http://www.kwongwah.com.my/news/2008/08/31/84.html

企管锦曩:出色的管理者10大特征

2008/08/26 18:00:38
●南洋商报


优秀管理者和一般管理者，他们的工作业绩相差几倍甚至十几倍，这是一个常见的事实。

也许有人会对这样的事实百思不得其解。其实，我们知道，管理者的大部分业绩不是自己亲手创造的，而是通过和别人的合作（包括下属、同事、客户等）创造的，甚至可以说是“借他人之力”创造的。明白了这一点，以上所提到的事实也就不难理解了。

（1）处事冷静，但不优柔寡断
出色管理者都具有处事冷静的特点，他们善于考虑事情的多个方面或问题涉及的各利害关系方，不易冲动行事。

优秀管理者虽然处事冷静，但并不优柔寡断，他们往往会在周密思考后果断作出决定或清晰地阐明自己的观点。

具有这种特征的管理者往往能使事情或问题得到比较妥当的处理，同时又有利于形成良好的人际关系。

（2）做事认真，但不事事求“完美”
出色管理者深知经商和科研不一样。科研侧重追求的是严谨、精益求精；经商侧重追求的是效益、投入产出比。

出色管理者做事非常认真仔细，但他们同时也非常懂得什么事情需要追求“完美”（尽善尽美），什么事情“差不多就行”（达到基本标准）。

具有这种特征的管理者往往能把事情“做对”，并且能比一般人更容易创造出价值。

（3）关注细节，但不拘泥于小节
出色管理者善于关注事情的细节，善于留意观察身边的人和事。他们善于抓住问题的要害，善于将问题“扼杀”在萌芽状态。

出色管理者虽然善于关注细节，但他们不会过分拘泥于小节，不会在意别人的一点小过错或小过失。

具有这种特征的管理者往往能大幅度减少“问题”的发生，日常管理工作也会井然有序。

（4）协商安排工作，绝少发号施令
管理者不是发号施令的“监工”。

一个能让下属主动“追随”的管理者，依赖的是他（她）的个人魅力和领导力，而不是他（她）手中的“权利”。

出色的管理者绝少对下属发号施令，他们往往采用和下属商量的方式布置和安排工作。

（5）关爱下属，懂得惜才爱才
出色管理者善于尊重和关爱下属，他们往往视同事如“兄弟”，懂得怎样去珍惜和爱护与自己朝夕相处、共同拼搏的“战友”。

具有这样特征的管理者往往会让下属有一种“如家”的感觉，无形中也让大家更积极、更主动、更无怨无悔地付出。

（6）对人宽容，甘于忍让
出色管理者胸怀宽广，对人宽容、甘于忍让，他们善于将心比心，善于考虑别人的难处和利益，善于“挖起荆棘并种下玫瑰”。

具有这种特征的管理者往往易于形成良好的人际关系，并往往能在需要时，得到别人最真诚的支持和帮助。

（7）严以律己，以行动服人
出色管理者不会让自己独立于各种规章制度之外，他们往往身体力行、为人表率，用自己的实际行动来影响和带动身边的人。

具有这种特征的管理者往往“其身正，不令而行”。

（8）为人正直，表里如一
出色管理者为人正直、表里如一。他们往往对人一视同仁、处事公平公正。没有暗箱操作；也不会当面“抹蜜饯”，背后“捅刀子”。

具有这种特征的管理者往往使人有“安全感”并能得到别人充分的信任。

（9）谦虚谨慎，善于学习
出色管理者不会把自己已有的知识和技能作为管理的资本。他们往往谦虚谨慎，乐于向自己的上司、同事和下属等学习。

具有这种特征的管理者往往具有比较强的能力并且能够使自己的能力得到持续的提高。

（10）不满足于现状，但不脱离现实
出色管理者不满足于当前的业绩，他们都有比较高远的目标和追求。他们不满足于现状，但决不会脱离现实，他们总是一步一个脚印为更高更远的目标而奋斗。他们非常清楚自己的将来会是怎样，而怎样才是他们想象中的将来。

具有这样特征的管理者往往具有充沛的工作激情并有持之以恒的工作动力。

匯華：明年產業領域挑戰更嚴峻

大馬財經 2008-08-23 12:31


（檳城）匯華產業（HUNZPTY，5018；主板產業組）預料今年及明年，產業領域將面臨嚴峻的挑戰及考驗。

公司執行主席拿督許廷忠在股東大會後表示，目前是產業週期性的運轉，正步下低谷，其中原因是產業在歷史上從來沒有發生過建材被壟斷後高價出售的問題，還有國家政治不明朗，可形容為對產業歷史性的強大殺傷力，或為產業帶來為期不短的挑戰。

在整個產業大環境來看，未來挑戰更嚴竣，產業界在強大的衝擊下，須精益求精，加強競爭力，防範風暴的吹襲。

他希望政府在下週五公佈的明年度財政預算案中，能夠控制建材價格，協助發展商減輕負擔，同時也讓消費者不必付出高昂的代價來購買房子。

不過，儘管前景險竣，他還是對對匯華業務未來的發展充滿信心，因為該公司的業績已經連績6年取得驕人成績。

公司截至2008年6月30日財政年度的營業額及盈利再創高峰，扣除稅後及股東盈利之後，凈利為4843萬令吉，比2007年財政年度增長達24%。

公司營業額為2億4513餘萬令吉，比去年的1億8673萬令吉，增長了31%，同時建議5.5仙終期股息。

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/15925

葛尼 Infiniti銷售若延長 匯華產業淨利受影響

更新: August 26, 2008 23:35


（吉隆坡26日訊）海內外經濟不明朗，建築原料成本揚高，匯華產業（HUNZPTY，5018，主板產業）預測，產業銷量或持續走緩，分析界認為，假設產業葛尼廣場（Gurney Paragon）及Infiniti銷售期延長，匯華產業09及2010財年經常淨利（recurring net profit）將收窄。

肯納格證券研究指出，原料成本高企，葛尼廣場成本，從1年前的4億令吉勁揚25%至5億令吉。

“若原料價格回緩，及全面運用建築臂膀公司，進一步節省更多資金，公司有信心，將可維持早前設定的總發展成本。”

惟該券商保守估計，葛尼廣場將需耗時18個月，成本總值將達4億5000萬令吉。

“假設葛尼廣場及Infiniti銷售期延長，匯華產業09財年經常淨利將減低16%至5200萬令吉，2010財年則收窄19%至6200萬令吉。”

不過，肯納格證券研究提高2011財年經常淨利73%至7100萬令吉，主要考量到葛尼廣場及Infiniti銷量或越預期。

積極行銷海外

“料將在2010財年下半年及2011財年推出的Alila II和泗岩沫計劃，也將推高匯華產業2011財年經常淨利。”

聯昌證券研究說，繼新加坡及英國后，該公司也積極為葛尼廣場及Infiniti行銷，下一個海外市場目標為香港。“

該兩項計劃的平均銷量也提高，從原有的每平方尺約400令吉，漲至目前的約600令吉，曾經一度高企在790令吉。”

聯昌證券研究給匯華產業“中立”（Neutral）評級，目標價為1.65令吉；肯納格證券研究則維持“買進”投資評級，合理價為3.59令吉。

http://www.chinapress.com.my/content_new.asp?dt=2008-08-27&sec=business&art=0827bs19.txt

IJM Corp still doing well despite challenging times

Wednesday August 27, 2008


SUBANG JAYA: IJM Corp Bhd is still doing well despite the challenging times in the construction industry, said chief executive officer and managing director Datuk Krishnan Tan.

Continuous focus would be placed on securing overseas jobs to contribute further to the company’s order book, he told reporters after its AGM and EGM yesterday.

The company announced yesterday a net profit of RM129.1mil for its first quarter to June 30, against a loss of RM728.9mil in the same period a year earlier.

Revenue improved to RM1.22bil from RM1.11bil previously, while earnings per share stood at 10.65 sen compared with a loss per share of 89.34 sen.

On the West Coast Expressway project undertaken in a joint venture with Kumpulan Europlus Bhd, Tan said he expected some delays as there was a double-digit increase in the cost of building materials.

IJM has a 25% stake in Europlus.

Tan said that in the Middle East, the company was bidding for two jobs in Bahrain, one in Dubai and two in Abu Dhabi worth more than RM1bil.

Its current order book is estimated at about RM5bil, of which 50% were contracts from India and the Middle East.

On the proposed listing of IJM (India) Infrastructure Ltd (IJMII) on the National Stock Exchange of India. Tan said the company had deferred it but ultimately IJMII would be listed.

“The environment in India, which contributes 30% of our order book, has changed substantially over the last six months to a year due to rising costs.

“Interest rate has also gone up to as high as 13% in India, thus affecting both the cost of doing business and demand from prospective property buyers,” Tan said.

IJM’s expressway project, which starts from Chilkaluripet to Vijayawada in Andhra Pradesh, India, requires a capital expenditure of RM900mil.

Total construction cost is RM550mil and the concession spans 15 years.

“Originally the two-lane road was to be expanded to four lanes.

“Now the Indian authorities want six lanes,” said Tan.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/8/27/business/1888315&sec=business

Success: Mideast, Asean demand to stay strong

Saturday August 23, 2008
By YEOW POOI LING


SUNGAI BULOH: Success Transformer Corp Bhd expects demand for transformers and lighting products from the Middle East and Asean countries to remain strong, says a company official.

Transformers and lightings are the bread and butter for the company, contributing about 78% of its net earnings in the first-half year while the balance came from process equipment business.
“We only had a slight adjustment in pricing despite the pressures from higher raw material prices and labour cost. This probably gave us the advantage over our competitors in the local market during the first six months,” the official said.

About 50% of raw materials for transformers are steel-related products, for which prices have increased by 30% to 40% this year.

However, Success Transformer only adjusted its selling prices marginally as productivity improved, thanks to the cost-cutting measures implemented last year, he added.

The company’s 60%-owned joint venture in China, Ningbo Success Zhenye Luminaire Ltd Liabilities Co, is anticipated to start operations next month.

Ningbo Success has also given a profit guarantee of 7 million renminbi for 24 months from September.

“This would give us better cost control abilities in terms of purchasing and sourcing of light fittings in China,” the official said.

Additionally, Success Transformer is penetrating markets in Europe like France, Portugal and the Netherlands as it has secured the relevant certification and met the required standards of quality.

The official said the company was running at 80% of production capacity for transformers and lightings.

Success Transformer is currently sourcing for new warehousing facilities in anticipation of more demand.

Its process equipment subsidiary, Seremban Engineering Sdn Bhd (SESB), contributed about 38% of revenue and 22% of net profit in the first-half year. The spokesman said SESB’s contribution to bottomline would eventually reach 30%.

SESB’s fifth factory would be completed this year, boosting capacity by 20%. “Depending on the demand, we may consider setting up the sixth factory,” the official said, adding that SESB’s existing two-acre site, which houses the fifth facility, could easily accommodate another.

SESB’s order book is about RM40mil and it was bidding for RM50mil worth of projects,” he said, adding that it ventured into the waste management sector in Singapore earlier this year.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/8/23/business/1870187&sec=business

Cheap stocks all over

Monday August 25, 2008


WITH all the negative newsflow about headwinds, it must have been a relief to investors that this is shaping up into a fairly benign results season.

While the season peaks and ends this week, the results released so far showed a number of companies that performed above analysts’ expectations.

Plantations and steel companies - both segments of steel millers and downstream steel products - reported huge profits as did companies in other sectors, in particular, consumer goods.

There isn’t a celebrative mood, however, as their performance was not recognised in the stock market.

One reason is that analysts have cut their forecast profits for almost all companies for the second half of the year, which may not be right in all cases.

At the same time, shares of big companies were de-rated to price/earnings ratios (PE) of about 10 times, while their small cap counterparts are stuck at around five times.

This is due to the outflow of foreign portfolio funds. The outflow of foreign funds from the Asia ex-Japan region in the first seven months this year reportedly exceeded their inflow during the whole of last year.

Their departure, for a variety of reasons, brought prices to their current levels.

Even at these levels, stocks here do not attract fund managers as share prices are at similarly depressed levels throughout the region, with many small caps elsewhere trading at five times PE too.

In the oil and gas (O&G) sector, valuation of stocks here range from 10 to 15 times.

However, the owners of oil reserves like Exxon Mobil Corp trades at a PE of 8.4 times while Royal Dutch Shell is at 6.7 times, which is lower than most of the valuations of the O&G stocks. That poses a conundrum for the stocks, which is a barrier to upside for the local stocks.

The economic conditions and financial liquidity in the developed countries would not turnaround the flow of foreign funds. It would take an inflow to turn the markets.

That could take some more months, but when that occurs, the companies that delivered outperformance should be well rewarded.

Presentable performance

UMW Holdings Bhd produced a fat 42% increase in its net profit to RM152mil for Q2.

Although it’s usually billed as an automotive cum O&G stock, the earnings outperformance was driven entirely by its Toyota division, according to analysts. Most of the contribution from its O&G division is believed to be at associate company level.

UMW’s results point to strong earnings from other automotive companies that recorded higher sales and managed to control costs.

Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd lived up to its reputation for consistent performance. It reported on Friday a 23% expansion in net profit to RM14mil for Q2.

This did not come without a cost as the earnings growth came from an expanded plant capacity and output while net profit margin declined to 6.5% from 7.1% a year ago.

Even so, it is a creditable performance to have earnings growth in the face of record latex prices.
It said some 22% of its total capacity was in the nitrile category and this would double when 11 new production lines were ready by November. It is believed that would raise profit margins as nitrile gloves provide higher margins than natural rubber gloves.

Tanjung Offshore Bhd announced on Friday that its seven vessels were revalued, giving rise to a revaluation surplus of RM95mil. It added the surplus would be incorporated into its financial statements next year.

This is unusual as owners of ships do not usually do this.

Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd, for instance, also own ships that it could sell for a large profit but it books the profits only upon a sale of the ships.

But these are unusual times, and the value of offshore vessels have appreciated more than assets on the land. As Tanjung Offshore put it, it would reflect the current values of its vessels.

Pizza Hut operator QSR Brands Bhd and its associated company KFC Holdings Bhd reported firm earnings growth. QSR’s rise of 44% in its net profit for Q2 reflects a trend among consumers towards pizza.

Some of the Q2 results were appetising but the proof of the pudding will be in the third quarter against the backdrop of an economic slowdown.

What’s cooking?

A fairly new term seems to have seeped into our financial lexicon namely, “kitchen sinking.”
This phrase refers to releasing the bad news all at once instead of in stages, and was derived from the idiom everything but the kitchen sink.

Here, analysts use the term for banks although it’s also used for companies in other sectors. This course of action taken by companies also tends to be leaked to analysts or the media a little earlier so that it is explained to avoid a sudden shock to investors.

The term is frequently used in relation to banks because they tend to take large loan loss provisions - which analysts call kitchen sinking - after a change of top management, and such changes became commonplace in the consolidation of banks.

AMMB Holdings Bhd, for instance, reported a pre-tax loss of RM691mil in its fourth quarter ended March 31, 2007 on a more stringent loss provisioning policy upon the entry of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd as a shareholder. Analysts forewarned of that loss as an act of kitchen sinking.

Likewise, they recently forewarned of kitchen sinking at EON Capital Bhd. True enough, the company announced last week it incurred a pre-tax loss of RM98.9mil in Q2 as it raised its loan loss coverage.

That followed the entry of Primus Pacific Partners as the new single largest shareholder in EON Capital in June.

There were some disappointments in banking results this season although Alliance Financial Group Bhd did not let investors down.

Alliance reported a 31% jump in its net profit to RM124mil for its first quarter ended June 30.

That followed its own kitchen sinking that caused a pre-tax loss of RM327mil for the quarter ended Sept 30, 2005, after Singapore’s Temasek Holdings became a major shareholder.

One reason for kitchen sinking measures is that new management wants to write off all the legacy problems so that they do not become a drag on results under their watch.

In some cases, there would be substantial recoveries of these write-offs which would boost results for the following one or two years.

It’s quite clear that when there is a change of management in a bank, investors can expect there will be kitchen sinking soon after.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/8/25/business/1875581&sec=business

Analysts bullish on Success Transformer

KENANGA Research
21-08-2008


KENANGA Research, which has a buy rating and a target price of RM1.43 on Success Transformer Corporation Bhd (STCB), is bullish on the company's prospects going forward saying that it expected demand for STCB's products to remain robust despite the challenging macroeconomic environment.

"Our likes include the management's strong execution track record and capability, rising prospects for its key divisions as well as the undemanding valuation of 5.4 times based on our conservative FY08F," the research house said in a recent note.

Commenting on the company's results for the second quarter ended June 30 2008, Kenanga said that the half-yearly top line of RM91.3 million was 52% of its full-year forecast while the RM11.68 million half-yearly net profits were 59% of the forecast.

It pointed out that the quarter-on-quarter top line was up 14% due to a 19.3% improvement in STCB's traditional transformer and industrial lighting division, while process equipment was up by 6%. Net profits meanwhile jumped 30.3% due to better margins from the process equipment division.

The research housed added that the fifth Seremban factory is on course for completion by year-end, to add an additional 20% fabrication capacity and that the company's Chinese joint venture (JV) is slated to begin production in September.

To recapitulate, STCB has a JV under 60%-owned Ningbo Success Zhenye Luminaire Ltd since May this year to design and manufacture light fixtures and fittings. The JV comes with a 24-month profit guarantee of RMB7 million (RM3.4 million) beginning September.

The JV is expected to enable the company better control over quality, costs and delivery of its upstream lighting products, said SJ Securities Research which has an overweight call on the STCB stock at a fair value of RM1.45.

STCB's 2QFY08 results had exceeded the research house's expectations. It said that STCB's revenue and net profit were 54.6% and 64.6% respectively of its full-year estimates.

"We are again impressed by the management's ability to consistently improve and add value to the company. We therefore reiterate our overweight recommendation on STCB with an unchanged fair value of RM1.45, pegging a forward price-earnings ratio (PER) of 7.6 times."

The research house noted that all segments had performed strongly, concurring with Kenanga Research's view that the performance was commendable despite the challenging economic climate.

However, it pegged a lower forward PER on the stock due to poorer valuations of stocks listed on Bursa, pointing out also that STCB was trading at an undemanding forward PER of 4.7 times.

Success Transformer slipped one sen to close at 89 sen yesterday.

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_e36d8826-cb73c03a-df294000-e7994e57

Success Transformers - 1HFY08 Results Review

OSK Investment Research
August 19, 2008


So Far So Good
Success Transformers’ (STC) 1HFY08 net earnings of RM11.7m is in line with our forecast. 1H revenue and earnings grew strongly by 39.6% and 43.9% respectively contributed by strong sales from all divisions. The current quarter also incorporated the full contribution of its newly-acquired 100% subsidiary, Seremban Engineering SB (SESB), which boosted q-o-q revenue and earnings by 14.1% and 29.1% respectively. We expect its China operation to contribute positively in 4Q. There are no changes to our earnings forecast at this juncture and we are maintaining our BUY recommendation with a target price of RM1.57.

Margins slightly lower. 1H EBITDA margin was slightly lower at 20.9% compared with 22.2% previously owing to the nature of SESB’s business, which fetches a slightly lower margin than STC’s core business of manufacturing transformers and industrial lighting. Hence, it pulls down the group’s overall margin.

Tapping Chinese market. STC’s 60:40 JV in China will enable the company to open its marketing network in the country. This JV Co., which mainly manufactures industrial lighting products, will start operation on early September ‘08. As a commitment to this JV, the Chief Executive Officer of the JV Co. - also the owner of the remaining 40% equity interest – has given a total profit guarantee of Rmb7m for a period of 24 months commencing September ’08.

Maintaining forecast. We maintain our FY08 and FY09 earnings forecast at RM22.2m and RM26.8m respectively. The Group’s balance sheet is healthy with net gearing of less than 0.1x.

Maintain BUY. We have rolled over our valuation to FY09 and arrived at a target price of RM1.57 by applying a composite of 7x PER over FY09 EPS of 22.4 sen and 1.5x P/BV. The share is currently tradingat at an undemanding forward PE of 5x and 4.1x for FY08 and FY09 respectively. We maintain our BUY recommendation on STC.

Success beats forecast on strong demand

Wednesday August 20, 2008
By SHANNEN WONG

All segments post double-digit growth amid challenges

PETALING JAYA: Success Transformer Corp Bhd’s strong first half results were above expectations, thanks to continuing strong demand for transformers and industrial lighting equipment as well as process equipment, said analysts.

Kenanga Research said in its report yesterday: “For the first half, revenue was 52% of our full year’s forecast, while net profit of RM11.6mil came in at a strong 59%.”

For the second quarter ended June 30, Success Transformer registered a 14.1% increase in revenue against the preceding quarter, with a 19.3% sales increase in its traditional transformer and industrial lighting business and a 6% increase in sales of process equipment.

Meanwhile, net profit jumped 30.3% to RM6.9mil against RM5.8mil in the first quarter due to better margins fetched by the process equipment division at 15.2% compared with 9.8% in the preceding quarter.

According to the research house, the order book of Success Transformer’s process equipment division, currently valued at RM35mil, would keep the company busy for at least six months.

“Based on its past success rate of 20% to 30%, the company should yield an additional RM9mil to RM13mil worth of contracts out of the total RM45mil contracts that the division has tendered for,” it said.

Moreover, the company’s fifth factory in Seremban is on course for completion by year-end. It would give an additional 20% fabrication capacity, Kenanga Research said, adding that the sixth factory was on the drawing board.

“We continue to like the stock because of the management’s strong execution track record and capability,” it said.

Kenanga Research is maintaining a “buy” on the counter with a target price of RM1.43.

Meanwhile, SJ Securities Sdn Bhd has revised its earnings and revenue forecasts to RM23.04mil and RM174.66mil respectively for this financial year ending Dec 31 based on Success Transformer’s strong first half results.

“All segments registered double-digit growth in the second quarter amid the challenging economic environment,” it said.

SJ Securities has also incorporated expected contributions from Success Transformer’s 60:40 joint venture (JV) company with China-based Ninghai Zhenye Luminaries Manufacturing Co Ltd, Ningbo Success Zhenye Luminaire Ltd Liabilities Co.

“The management was positive on the JV company’s future contributions,” it noted.

“We are again impressed by the management’s ability to consistently improve and add value to the company,” SJ Securities said, reiterating its “overweight” call on the counter with a target price of RM1.45.

OSK Research noted that the JV company would contribute positively to the group’s revenue in the fourth quarter when operations began in early September.

The research house is maintaining a “buy” call on the counter with a target price of RM1.57.
Success Transformer fell 1 sen to close at 90 sen yesterday on a thin volume of 191,200 shares.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/8/20/business/1843448&sec=business

Why Warren Buffett chose Coca-Cola

GIVEN the weak stock market, we think now is the best time to search for the good and solid blue-chip stocks for long-term investment. However, most investors always have difficulties in choosing the right stocks.

Today, we will look into how world famous investment guru Warren Buffett identified his favourite stocks. At present, The Coca-Cola Co is one of Buffett’s key stocks that he will practically hold forever.

We believe a lot of investors would like to know why Buffett chose Coca-Cola as one of his key long-term holdings when one Wall Street analyst at that time labelled it as a “very expensive stock”.

Established in 1886, Coca-Cola is the world’s largest manufacturer, marketer and distributor of carbonated soft drink concentrates and syrups. At present, it operates in more than 200 countries and markets more than 2,800 beverage products. Besides, it also owns four of the world’s top five non-alcoholic sparkling beverage brands: Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Sprite and Fanta.

Why did Buffett choose Coca-Cola? He likes caffeinated soft drinks. He acquired 7% of Coca-Cola stocks in 1988 for a total investment of US$1.02bil or at an average price of US$5.46 per share. As at Dec 31, 2007, Berkshire Hathaway owned 200 million Coca-Cola stocks, or 8.6% of the company’s outstanding shares.

Buffett’s original cost in this company was US$1.3bil. Based on the latest market value dated Dec 31, 2007, he achieved an annual compounded capital gain of 11.9% for 20 years. However, if we include all the dividends received, we believe his return from this stock may be more than 20% per annum!

Buffett considers Coca-Cola “inevitable” where it has low business risk and is suitable for long-term holding. To him, buying Coca-Cola has far less business risk over the long term than any computer company. Being the most recognised international trademark, Coca-Cola enjoys global power with very high competitive dominance and economies of scales.

Coca-Cola sells 1.5 billion servings everyday worldwide. As a result of its strong brands, the attributes of its products and the global distribution systems, it has a very high business consistency and performance throughout the years. Given the certainty of its long-term prospects, Buffett may choose to hold this stock forever.

He also finds that Coca-Cola has a simple and understandable business. Besides, Buffett likes to acquire companies with high profit margins and return on equity (ROE). When he acquired Coca-Cola in 1988, it reported a pre-tax profit margin and ROE of 19% and 31.8% respectively.

Apart from that, Coca-Cola also showed very high cash flow or “owner earnings”. Buffett defined owner earnings as reported earnings plus depreciation and certain other non-cash charges, minus the average annual capital expenditures required for a company to maintain its unit volume and competitive position. In 1988, the company showed an increase in owner earnings to US$828mil against US$262mil in 1981.

Buffett always advises investors to study the raw data in the financial statement and trust our own eyes rather than analysts’ summaries. When Buffett acquired Coca-Cola, he paid quite a high premium compared with the overall market average. He paid about 15 times and five times for Coca-Cola based on price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio respectively.

Given the strong performance and certainty in management quality, Buffett felt highly confident that he would be rewarded by the management’s ability to generate more owner earnings and to realise the full potential of the business.

A good company should pay dividends to its shareholders. If the company decides to retain its earnings for future expansion, every dollar it retains must translate into one-dollar market value. Buffett labels this as a one-dollar premise.

Since 1987, apart from paying good dividends, the overall market value of Coca-Cola has surged much higher that its retained earnings.

In summary, even though it is not easy to identify the next Coca-Cola, with hard work, the current downturn provides us a golden opportunity to hunt for good fundamental stocks for long-term holdings.

Construction poser

THE RECENT GENERAL ELECTION and uncertainties in the domestic political scene may have changed the landscape of Malaysian construction companies, for this year at least.

Some brokerage firms are having second thoughts about the construction sector, saying that the shocking performance of the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition has put some lavish mega projects in limbo. Hence, a de-rating of the sector.

Analysts say the situation may have some negative effects on share prices of stocks like Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd, Scomi Group Bhd, Scomi Engineering Bhd and UEM World Bhd.

TA Securities Bhd says concerns may arise on the implementation of projects like the Ipoh-Padang Besar double tracking and Pahang- Selangor interstate water transfer. This may consequently exert selling pressure on share prices of companies like MMC Corp Bhd, Gamuda Bhd and Kumpulan Perangsang Selangor Bhd.

Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd's research unit expects mega projects, especially in states controlled by Opposition parties like Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) in Selangor and the Democratic Action Party (DAP) in Penang, to be reviewed.

`Major projects like the Penang Global City Centre (PGCC), Penang monorail, Penang Outer Ring Road, Langat II water treatment plant and Selangor-Pahang interstate water transfer project would likely slow down in the awarding of contracts and commencement of work,' Kenanga Research says.

Nevertheless, Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng from the DAP has made it clear that the PGCC project was not an issue as no approval had been given in the first place.

Selangor Menteri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim from PKR, meanwhile, has said that the state government would honour contracts signed under the RM9 billion Pahang-Selangor water transfer project.

But it would review the RM2.5 billion contract for the Langat II water treatment plant that would receive raw water from Pahang. Kumpulan Darul Ehsan Bhd was, last January, given the letter of award to build and operate the water treatment plant in Ulu Langat.

Kenanga Research expects more contracts to be awarded on an open tender basis to capable and competent companies or contractors. This should lower contract value and, theoretically, lower government development expenditure.

RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd has downgraded the sector to `underweight' from `neutral', given the possible structural changes in terms of awards of public contracts into a new one that is more transparent.

`The dismantling of the decades-old public procurement model that was a money spinner for most companies in the past means that construction companies should now trade at lower multiples.

`(The dismantling) theoretically would be good for the sector over the long-term as it promotes competition and efficiency. Unfortunately, over the short-term, this means one key appeal of most Malaysian construction companies, ie, the ability to win direct- negotiated public contracts that fetch fat margins, is now gone,' it says.

Consequently, RHB Research has downgraded its benchmark one-year forward price earnings ratio (PER) for the sector from 15x to 10x. Indicative fair values of industry players have been cut too.

What are the good stocks?

Kenanga Research has suggested that investors focus on construction stocks with significant overseas order books. This means the likes of Muhibbah Engineering Bhd and LCL Corp Bhd.

Analysts at rating agency RAM Holdings Bhd say larger players such as Gamuda have long begun extending their geographical reach to reduce reliance on the domestic market.

Aside from diversifying their earnings base, the current construction and real-estate booms and untapped development prospects of the Gulf countries and emerging economies such as Vietnam and Cambodia also present opportunities to the larger companies with the requisite financial muscle and technical expertise, it adds.

RHB Research likes Zelan Bhd and Sunway Holdings Bhd, expecting them to outperform the market. Zelan, the firm says, deserves a fair value of RM5.69 while Sunway Holdings is targeted at RM1.93.

RHB Research has changed its recommendation on WCT Engineering Bhd and Hock Seng Lee Bhd to `market perform' from `outperform' previously. Its coverage on Prinsiptek Corp Bhd has been halted in view of the market's reduced appetite for construction stocks with small market capitalisation and low share liquidity.

Gamuda and IJM Corp Bhd also are not in the `good' books of RHB Research at the moment. The former's one-year forward PER is now being traded as low as 7x, while IJM's is at 11x from 17x previously.

`During the downcycle in 1999-2000, Gamuda's one-year forward PER was de-rated from a peak of 15x to a low of 7x, while during the 2002-2003 downcycle (that was shallower), it was de-rated from 13x to 9x. So far in the current 2008 downcycle, it has already been de- rated from 25x to 13x,' the firm notes.

For IJM, RHB Research notes that its one-year forward PER was de- rated from a peak of 22x to a low of 11x during the downcycle in 1999-2000, while during the 2002-2003 downcycle, it was de-rated from 17x to 13x. So far in the current 2008 downcycle, it has been de-rated from 17x to 11x.

Overall sectoral performance

Despite the general gloomy feeling, RAM thinks the construction sector should grow further by 5.2% in 2008 with more pace seen in the second half of the year. For 2007, the growth had been anticipated at 4.2%.

`As expected, the construction sector posted a slight recovery in 2007, with an average growth rate of 4.5% for the first three quarters of the year,' the rating firm noted in its credit and sector perspective for 2008 released early this month.

RAM said the performance, which compared favourably against the 0.5% contraction in 2006, was spurred by a gradual pick-up in infrastructure developments under the Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP).

However, the rating firm said the pace of implementation for the 9MP has been rather slow thus far, with only 30% of the RM200 billion development allocation having been disbursed as at end- October 2007.

`We anticipate the pace of implementation to pick up in 2008,' it added.

Zahir Ramley "Construction poser". Malaysian Business. Apr 1, 2008. FindArticles.com. 08 May. 2008.

Knock on wood

MALAYSIA HAS MANY THINGS to be proud of. Among them is definitely furniture. Over the past two decades, Malaysian-made furniture has successfully established a strong reputation of stability in product quality and good value.

The Malaysian furniture industry is export-oriented, with close to 80% of production exported. Export has been growing between 10%- 15% year-on- year over the past 15 years, with the exception of 2001, when depressed global sentiments caused a drop in export value. Furniture export was almost RM7.5 billion in 2006, and over RM8.5 billion in 2007 (see Table 2). Malaysia's export of furniture is expected to grow by 5%-10% annually to hit RM10 billion by 2010 in tandem with global growth.

According to CSIL Milano - Furniture Industry Research Institute based in Italy, the global furniture industry is expected to expand further and the world furniture trade is estimated to grow by 8.2% from US$ 97 billion in 2007 to US$ 105 billion in 2008.

It is estimated that more than 80% of wood-based (including furniture) product companies are SMEs. The industry is predominantly Malaysian-owned, and to date, more than 4,100 wood-processing mills are in operation.

There are about 2,300 Malaysian furniture companies mainly located in the West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia, with Muar, Johor, dubbed the furniture hub. According to the Malaysian Furniture Entrepreneur Association (MFEA), Muar is producing approximately 40% of the nation's total furniture export. The upholstery and leather furniture industry is strong in Selangor, while Penang is also known for its rubberwood furniture and sofa, says MFEA president Desmond Tan.

With a total membership of over 2,000 nationwide, ranging from furniture retailers, distributors, wholesalers, accessories, manufacturers and exporters, MFEA is the largest representation for the local furniture industry.

In 2006, the furniture industry was the 2nd largest exporter in the wood-based industry (after plywood) and Malaysia is among the top-ten of the world's furniture-exporting countries. In terms of export/production figures, Malaysia ranked second among the world's top-ten furniture exporters, with 77% of its production exported.

Malaysia has diversified its export markets for furniture and currently exports to more than 160 countries. The US, Japan, Australia and the UK remain the main export destinations due to the popularity of light- coloured rubberwood among developed countries (see Table 3). Besides these traditional markets, Malaysian furniture has also gained access to the markets in New Zealand, South America, Middle East, Africa and Russia.

Raw materials

Currently, about 85% of wooden furniture is made from rubberwood, while the remaining 15% is made from a combination of other wood and reconstituted panel products such as medium density fibreboard (MDF) and particleboard. Garden/outdoor furniture from tropical hardwood is mainly for the European and Australian markets.

As such, the increase of rubberwood prices is a cause for concern. Rubberwood now costs RM1,500 a tonne compared to RM400 some years back. The price hike is due to the increase of rubber trees kept for latex production in view of the present high price of natural rubber.

To ensure adequate supply of rubberwood, the export of rubberwood sawntimber was banned effective June 8, 2005 but some rules were subsequently relaxed. To encourage reforestration, the Forest Plantation Development Sdn Bhd has to date approved soft loans worth RM80.5 million to five companies to undertake forest plantation activities with a total area of 11,600 hectares. Under the Forest Plantation Programme, the government plans to develop 375,000 hectares of forest plantation with the planting of 25,000 hectares a year. The programme, implemented since 2006, will be ready for harvesting in 2021. While there are a total of eight species identified to be planted under this programme, focus will be given to two, namely, rubberwood latex timber clone for Peninsular Malaysia and Acacia Mangium for Sarawak.

The Malaysia Timber Industry Board (MTIB) is currently finalising the National Timber Policy to strengthen the development of wood- based industry especially for the furniture sector.
Meanwhile, hardwood import for furniture production is increasing, especially American hardwood.

`It's good. We're encouraging it because it conserves our forests. We sell the finished product back to America at a higher premium anyway,' says Malaysian Furniture Promotion Council (MFPC) Chairman Datuk Merlyn Kasimir.

Efforts are being made to rebrand furniture-making as a respectable career to pursue. MTIB has set up a Timber Innovation Centre in collaboration with Limkokwing University College of Creative Technology to promote the use of timber as a raw material for furniture where other materials such as oil palm trunks can be used.

MTIB and MFPC continue to seek greater market access for Malaysian furniture through FTA negotiations with its trade partners where lower import duties will make it more competitive in the partner's market.

According to Kasimir, tariffs in some countries were a crippling 30%-40% or higher.

Kasimir says the council is also stepping up promotional activities this year, including plans to start bringing local manufacturers along on its overseas trade missions. Meanwhile, it continues to support the development of the industry and help cultivate a design culture among industry players.

Moving forward

The rapid growth of the Malaysian furniture industry since 1990 can be attributed to the development of the original equipment manufacturing (OEM) market. But moving forward, especially in view of stiff competition from low-cost producers such as China and Vietnam, it has to move further up the value chain.

Malaysian furniture makers recognise the importance of value- adding, especially in the area of quality enhancement and design development. They have moved away from mass-production at low prices to more upmarket and niche products while maintaining competitive pricing.

`New directions must be taken to elevate our position in world rankings. We must now progress in a structured manner from OEM to original design manufacturing (ODM) and then achieving original brand name (OBN) status,' quips EFE Organising Chairman Quek Kheng Leng.

`Generic items have a fixed pricing - it all boils down to who's cheaper. But with ODM and OBN, the manufacturer determines the price,' Malaysian International Furniture Fair or MIFF Managing Director Datuk Tan Chin Huat says.

MIFF and Export Furniture Exhibition (EFE), two competing yet complementary furniture exhibition organisers, have been instrumental in promoting Malaysian furniture to international buyers. MIFF and EFE both held their fairs earlier this month.

Increased competition from low-cost producing countries notwithstanding, many local furniture makers are hardly fazed. The Malaysian furniture industry, backed by over 20 years of history, is well established and resilient. It will rise to the challenge, they reason. Some companies, such as Poh Huat Resources Holdings Bhd, have taken advantage of the lower costs in Vietnam by setting up factories there.

Manufacturers, consistently seeking cheaper production costs, tend to move around. China was the choice the past few years and now the focus is Vietnam, notes SJI Industries Sdn Bhd Managing Director Benny Poh. He attributes Vietnam's sudden surge in world furniture export rankings to the removal of the 13% VAT rebate in China, which caused a mass exodus of manufacturers in Vietnam The `moving around' will continue, he reasons, `next, maybe to Thailand, then Cambodia etc.'

However, Malaysia has the natural resources to fall back upon, something the regional competing furniture-producing countries have in limited quantities or none at all, he adds.

According to Poh, the cost of production in China is increasing, resulting in the narrowing of the price-gap between Chinese furniture and Malaysian furniture.

`Some seven to eight years ago, the price difference between them was about 25%. In two years, the gap is expected to drop to as low as 5%,' he says.

Another challenge facing the local furniture industry is manpower. The industry is still labour-intensive and currently, at least 25% is foreign labour. Policy changes on foreign labour policies, thus, will affect the industry directly.

`We hope the government can establish an effective and consistent labour policy to reduce uncertainties faced in furniture manufacturing,' says MFEA's Desmond Tan.

By improving technology and efficiency, local manufacturers hope to lower their dependence on foreign labour.

`Many of our factories are already well mechanised but we can still improve on efficiency by employing up-to-date technology,' SJI's Poh says.

Oursourcing is another option the industry is looking into to keep costs low. It makes more sense to import furniture components from low-cost producing countries than produce our own, notes MEICO Chipboard Bhd Managing Director Datuk Yong Seng Yeow. `The trend is now to import lots of components, keeping only higher-end production here,' he says.

However, Tan notes that while the import duty for complete furniture has been abolished, import duty on furniture parts, accessories and mechanisms still applies. `This reduces the competitiveness of supporting industries such as the furniture raw material and hardware suppliers, thus affecting manufacturers for the export market as well,' he says.

FURNITURE FAIRS GALORE

MARCH seems to be the furniture exhibition month. Besides our own Malaysian International Furniture Fair (MIFF) and the Export Furniture Exhibition Malaysia (EFE), held on March 4-8 and March 6- 10, respectively, there were no less than four other fairs in the region - one in Singapore and the rest in China. The International Furniture Fair Singapore (IFFS) was held on March 9-12; the International Famous Furniture Fair (IFFF) Guangdong, China, on March 16-20; the 21st China International Furniture Fair (Guangzhou) (CIFF) on March 18-21; and the 22nd Shenzhen International Furniture Exhibition (SIFE) on March 19-22.

Buyers were spoilt for choice as they surveyed what each fair had to offer. On the local front, MIFF and EFE consistently attract a large number of international visitors, many of them long-time supporters, faithfully returning each year.

MIFF 2008, the 14th instalment of the annual event, spanned over 80,000 sq m, with more than 500 exhibitors from 16 countries showcasing their products. Due to the large exhibition space needed, MIFF was split into two venues - Putra World Trade Centre (PWTC) and the Matrade Exhibition & Convention Centre.

According to MIFF Sdn Bhd Managing Director Datuk Tan Chin Huat, MIFF 2007 generated US$ 667 million in deals `and we hope to see a growth of at least 2%-5%'.

Tan says 25% of the exhibitors were foreign companies and MIFF aims to increase that to 50% in the future. MIFF strongly believes the presence of international exhibitors would help spur the local industry.

EFE 2008 is much smaller, slightly more than half the size of MIFF. The fourth EFE occupied 42,000 sq m of space over seven exhibition halls in the National Stadium at Bukit Jalil, with more than 150 participating exhibitors.

According to EFE Organising Chairman Quek Kheng Leong, EFE 2007 attracted international buyers from 152 countries and generated sales of RM1.8 billion. `About 30% of our previous exhibitors expanded their booth space this year, proof that they are confidant in EFE and satisfied with the results,' Quek quips.

Both organisers lament on the lack of a single exhibition area to accommodate the whole fair. Splitting the fair into two or more venues is hardly conducive, free shuttles ferrying visitors between venues notwithstanding.

`We need a venue with an exhibition space of at least 100,000 sq m,' echoes Datuk Seri Dr Lim Keng Yaik who officiated MIFF. Lim, the- then Minister of Primary Industries, was instrumental in the setting up of MIFF in 1995 and the development of the furniture industry.

`Despite having all the timber resources, Malaysia was only exporting RM40 million worth of furniture in 1986, while importing RM70 million. "What is wrong with you?" I asked the industry,' says Lim in his usual candour.

`We started by encouraging people involved in furniture manufacturing overseas to come back and build the nation's furniture industry. In 1995, we decided it was time to start our own exhibition,' he reminisces, adding proudly that furniture exports had in 2007 exceeded RM8 billion.

MIFF is today one of the ten leading furniture trade shows in the world and has won several accolades from the Ministry of Tourism and the Asia Pacific Brands Foundation. The younger EFE, likewise, has high ambitions. It aims to be the most important exhibition in Southeast Asia for international buyers to visit in next five years.

How attractive is Malaysian-made furniture to international buyers?

Malaysian Business spoke to several international buyers at the fairs and concludes that the appeal of Malaysian furniture is likely to last for a while yet. Despite Vietnam and China offering cheaper products, Malaysian furniture stands out in terms of quality.

`I would rather pay a slight premium for what I know is quality thantake a chance. Our reputation to our clients is at stake,' says Ray Rebecchi of Australia's Full House Furniture, who makes frequent trips all over the region sourcing furniture for his company's wholesale and retail operations. He has been coming to Malaysia every year for 14 years, and makes purchases each trip.

Fen Mohammed of Trinidad & Tobago is also a fan of the quality of Malaysian furniture and as such has been buying from here since eight years ago.

A couple from Kazakhstan has also made frequent buying trips to Malaysia. According to them, Kazakhstan, which only has a population of 15 million, has more than 10 companies that import furniture from Malaysia `and the number increases every year'.

International buyers tend to visit both the fairs and make comparisons. According to them, EFE has a cheaper pricing mechanism while MIFF caters more to a higher-end market.

Yvonne Chong "Knock on wood". Malaysian Business. Apr 1, 2008. FindArticles.com. 08 May. 2008.

Penang property outlook: Prospects still intact

TRANSPARENCY, accountability, economic viability and investor- friendly policies are all the positive virtues that have been promised by the Penang Government. To uplift accountability in the issuance of government contracts, Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng has insisted on an open public tender system for all projects.

Even the fate of the RM25 billion Penang Global City Centre (PGCC) project is hanging in the balance as Lim recently brushed aside the need to review the project after being informed by the Penang Municipal Council and the state Town and Country Planning Department that it has yet to be approved in the first place. As the proposal for the project was still in the processing stage, he noted the project's application would go through the normal procedures "but whether it will be approved or not is a different issue."

In January, the Federal Government had asked the developers of PGCC to revise their plans, which could delay the project, following widespread protests from residents. The revisions included such measures as scaling down its density, complying with affordable housing norms and leaving hilly land untouched.

To be undertaken by Abad Naluri Sdn Bhd, a 25%-owned by listed property developer Equine Capital Bhd, the PGCC project was to be built on the existing 104 hectares of the Penang Turf Club land, which Abad Naluri purchased for RM488 million in 2002.

To gauge what the future holds for Penang under the DAP-led Opposition State Government, Malaysian Business speaks to some prominent industry people in the state.

Datuk Jerry Chan Fook Sing, Real Estate and Housing Developers' Association Malaysia (REHDA) Penang Chairman and Managing Director, Asas Dunia Bhd

From a recent property fair officiated by Penang's Deputy Chief Minister II P. Ramasamy, I was pleasantly surprised to see development company bosses and their staff reaching out enthusiastically to him. It appears that the new DAP/PKR/PAS administration is accepted without a sense of apprehension or fear. I believe the current concern is uncertainty about pending changes in the administration of the local councils and other policy-making/ approving bodies.

Speaking for REHDA, we have outstanding issues that have been highlighted to the previous administration. Among them are a review in Penang Municipal Council (MPPP) density guidelines, price increase in low cost/low medium cost units, conditional approval of layout pending land conversion, automatic release of unsold Bumiputera units, release of unsold low-medium cost units for public sale, and the removal of back lanes.

On the whole, we believe we should see greater transparency, accountability and accessibility in decision-making as this was the platform on which the current administration used in their election campaign. The Chief Minister and exco members whose portfolios involve land, housing and local government should understand problems the property development industry faces. Then they must have short, medium and long- term plans for housing and real estate in Penang.

Most of the public and the investment community did not expect the outcome of the 12th General Elections (12GE). If public confidence is reinforced by the right policies and noises, what makes Malaysian property investable remains intact and would be further reinforced by such moves.

If the Federal Government carries out what our Prime Minister has assured the public, namely the Second Penang Bridge, the Penang Outer Ring Road and monorail projects, there will be positive spillover effect on the property sector.

Insofar as Penangites are concerned, I don't believe buyers would just hold back buying a property because of a change in the Government. The new administration has promised a "pro-business" approach and if the Pas-held Kelantan experience is any guide, there should be sufficient business and confidence momentum to carry the property sector for the next five years.

Dr Jason Teoh Poh Huat, Director, Henry Butcher Malaysia (Penang) Sdn Bhd

In the short term, real estate investors in Malaysia are expected to adopt "a wait and see" strategy on how the country's new economic landscape will unfold in the wake of the changing political climate. We have received many calls from our foreign investors, counterparts and clients anxious to get a better feel of the ground on the implications for the property market.

In the longer term, we expect Malaysia to continue being attractive as property prices are generally perceived to be still competitive and in most cases below that of its immediate neighbours. Attracting investments, tourisms and residents would indeed be a greater challenge today in view of the growing Asia Pacific real estate market offering alternative opportunities for investors in 2008.

Penang has its own peculiar challenges, which are unlike Selangor. Selangor is a much richer state with greater affluence and even population base. In order to bring further progress to the property sector in terms of creating greater demand, it is imperative to draw in more people to the state.

A survey showed that the average price of a house bought by foreign residents, which may include the Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) programme participants, is in the region of RM1 million. Taking an average of say 10% of participants buying a house in Malaysia, the impact on the property market as a whole would be say RM1 billion on the basis of about 10,000 participants over the last eight years. This translates to an average of about RM100 million per year.

Competitive pricings of properties in Kuala Lumpur and Penang, being much lower than Hong Kong, Singapore and even Vietnam, are anticipated to continue to drive investment interest. It is also interesting to note that real property prices in Penang and KL are still below their peak levels vis-a-vis 1996 and 1997 notwithstanding their rapid price appreciation over the last six years.

Datuk Tan Chiew Piau, Group Excutive Chairman, CP Land Sdn Bhd

I expect some changes in the authority approval process for development projects and it's likely to take some time before this new state governments come out with clear guidelines. This will cause delay in some of the projects that are pending approvals.

However, I believe once these issues are ironed out and clear guidelines are made known to the developers, the approval process may well be even simplified.

Generally, property developers have no problem with transparency and accountability on the part of the government but we wish this new state government will be consistent in their policies and have forward looking guidelines that are more adaptable to the current market scenario. Unsuitable guidelines, notably lower plot ratio and density in previously classified suburban areas, should be reviewed in line with the openings of new growth areas.

The immediate action needed from both the federal and state government is to restore confidence in the market. Pessimism can be felt immediately after the 12GE and this is further aggravated by the seemingly unending financial turmoil in the US.

Penang and Selangor are among the most developed states in Malaysia. Boasting high value investments in properties from both local and foreign investors, any slowdown in demand emanated from these two states will drag down the property market.

Post-election, our property stocks are experiencing turbulence deriving from the shocking outcome of the 12GE and a volatile global financial market. Investors are already very cautious as the property prices in Malaysia have been constantly testing new heights and may have even reached its peak of this current uptrend cycle. Some may view these events as a triggering point for a downturn cycle in property prices and thus abandoning the property stocks.

I foresee the property market experiencing price consolidation in the near future. Property prices in Penang & Selangor will likely hover around current level. Rental yield based on current prices may not be too attractive to investors to commit in at this stage.

Moving forward, investment in real estate should be made based on mid-to long-term view and also ability to hold on the assets for a longer period, ie, five years and above to reap capital appreciation. Penang and Selangor will still be the choice investment destinations for real estate in Malaysia with Johor and Sabah offering alternative choices.

Dr Goh Ban Lee, Retired Academic and Urban Governance Columnist

If the new government keeps to its election promises - transparency, accountability, rule of law and all fairness - the impact will be positive on the property development sector. Doing business, including building houses, will be competitive and competition is good in a capitalist market. Hopefully, the reduction in the cost of property development and competition will ensure that the price of properties will also be competitive and affordable.

In the efforts to foster transparency and accountability, it is time to make the decision-making process more transparent, especially with regards to approvals of development projects, land conversion, excision from hill land gazette and acquisition of land for development.

It will be wise to also review all existing land and development control laws and policies. Having done that, all laws and policies must be implemented fairly and firmly.

Local plans must be gazetted so that everyone knows exactly what is being planned for the near future. There is a serious need to understand the impacts of rapid rise in property prices on the housing needs of average families. Hopefully, a more efficient and transparent administration of land by the state government and processing of land development projects by the local councils will have positive impact on the prices of properties.

For a start, it is good if the councils can list all applications for permission to undertake development (planning approval) on their main notice boards and their websites. Similarly, all applications for land use conversion, from hill land reserve or other restrictions should be displayed properly, especially on the official websites.

Cheah Chor Sooi "Penang property outlook: Prospects still intact". Malaysian Business. Apr 1, 2008. FindArticles.com. 08 May. 2008.

SAMGOSS 的天时，地利，人和

今天我要介绍SAMGOSS的天时，地利，人和，看得懂英文的最好去股海沉浮 之 万人皆醉 我独醒这里看。

SAMGOSS 要我提醒大家要学习他的方法，一定要坚守两个原则：

1） 不能CONTRA((即是不要想在T+3内卖出)。
2） 一定要有持票能力。

孙子兵法说 ：要彻底赢得战役，你必须要有天時地利及人和缺一不可。

每个人都知道什麽是： 天时，地利，人和。你知道并不代表你了解。你了解了，并不代表你懂得如何运用在投资股票上。

什麽是天时呢？天时是无法控制，只能虚心的了解，比如外国及本地的市场情绪，行业前景及消费趋势对个股的影响。

什麽是地利呢？地利就是你能控制的基本面，如盈利成长良好，涉及的领域大丰收等，买入本益比（PE）<10>50 是你的选择，你的决定。

什麽是人和呢？人和就是时机（TIMING）。好的时机可以从注意交易量的突增获得---是不是有大股东买入/有国内外基金收集/有好消息就要宣布等等

SAMGOSS认为蓝筹股本益比
平均 25
> 25 太贵了
~ 20 可以考虑

二三线股本益比
平均 15
>18 太贵了

在买入低本益比（PE)股时，要先确定未来的盈利是否有能力保持，这需要从过去几个季报做出推断，要记得未来的盈利决定公司的成长。

三者之中，他认为地利或基本面（FA）最为重要，如你拥有有地利的股票，短期内你可能无法获利，但长期而言，你会获得你应得的回报，这些股票的例子有 PPB ,PBB,YTL ,IOI, Maybank 及 Genting 等等。

有天時及人和， 但缺少地利的股其实是以投机或听谣言买入，偶而会获利，但更多时候你将不能得到你想要的，而且会亏损。

如你要玩短线，你需要天時及人和，当然还有运气，但如果你要以有限的资金安全及平稳的获取最大的利益，你需要三者皆在， 如果天时及人和都没善待你，你还有地利的支持 。

大马股市（KLSE）在现阶段是严重缺乏天时及人和， 如你现在买入，你需要最少持票几个月，而且在熊市中的获利也是很有限的 (广东人说的；你赢，赢一粒糖，你输，就输一间厂 )。

永远记得投资要顺风而行， 天时与人和同在时，买进有地利（FA）的股就如顺水推舟，顺风顺水，大富大贵。

然而，当市场走下坡时，没有天时及人和,如果我们冒冒然的冲进去买，就如逆水推舟，不进则退，即使有地利也会遭殃。

地利的股适合玩长期。 SAMGOSS的经验是现在地利股长期虽然可以赚钱，但你有需要付出长期持股，资金被绑，错失其他买入良机的代价吗？先卖出，以后才买回不是更好吗 ?虽然我们并不知道那里是最低点，但在熊市，肯定有机会在更低价买回。

SAMGOSS 的问与答

循丛要求，SAMGOSS 建议。

Hi Sifu Sam,

有一些东西不是很明白，希望能够向你学习.

我知道本益比是其中一个好的投资指标，但纯以本益比（这只依据过去的赚益）来决定买入点，而没考虑到未来的赚益，其实是有很大的风险。

最难的是，我们做为门外汉，不能真正知道及检验公司现在与未来的方向，譬如公司可能在前几个季度成绩杰出，但以前的记录并不能确保未来的盈利，而任何一个投资错误或管理层居心不良，都能把公司带去荷兰。

所以我觉得如果只是依靠本益比，我们就像把赌注及信心交到公司的管理层，而很多时候，他们的所作所为都不是以小股东为出发点。

想问的是：当你买进一支股时， 除了本益比，你还有用其他指标或讯息吗？

Regards,
Yong

SAMGOSS 答：

1)只要你一脚踏入股市，就已把自己推入危机重重的股海，风险是避免不了的。

2) 除了死亡，这世间没有“肯定”的事。但买入低本益比的股票，特别是蓝筹股却肯定能降低亏损的风险及提高获利的潜能。如果这些股项能够经历了911 恐怖袭击，1987 黑色星期一，1998 东南亚金融风暴这些阻碍，挂牌五十年后还竖立不倒，这证明了它们基本面超强，管理良好。

3) 当然，如果未来盈利不能持续，买进低本益比或盈利记录良好的股票是不能保证一定投资获利；但如果买进低本益比都不能保证赚钱，那高本益比的股票呢？能够吗？

这就好像我告诉你：高廋的人不能在11秒内跑完一百公尺，可是肥矮的人能够吗？就这麽简单。

在我买入任何股票前，低本益比是我的第一个考量，之后我会审查过去的盈利报告来预测未来的盈利 。

基本上我不会买入本益比 〉15 的二三线股或本益比 〉20 的蓝筹股。

让我们做个比较：低本益比 = 受过教育的人，高本益比 = 没受过教育的人，这里没看轻人的意思。

受过教育的人没有保证一定成功，没受过教育的人不见得保证失败。但是受过教育的人最后成功及富有的机率肯定比没受过教育的高出十倍以上，你同意吗？

这就是为什麽我们应该/只是/一定买进低本益比的蓝筹股，因为我们获利的机率比买进高本益比的股项高了十倍以上。

Dangers of small cap stocks Very few make the grade

INVESTING SCENTS:BY S.DALI

MANY investors would be indifferent to investing in large cap stocks and small cap stocks. The inherent dangers of investing in small caps need to be investigated so that investors have a better grasp of the risks involved.

There is a very popular local fund manager who has performed admirably, largely thanks to his picks in mid and large caps. However, his track record was compromised somewhat by his picks among small caps; in fact, it was pretty dismal.

The biggest attraction of small caps is the huge growth potential. Most successful large cap companies started at one time as small businesses. Small caps give the individual investor a chance to get in on the cheap. Everyone talks about finding the next Genting, YTL or IOI Corp. However, the reality is that very few small caps make the grade.

It is certainly easier to grow from a market cap of RM100mil to RM500mil but it's a totally different scale to grow from RM1bil to RM5bil. At some point you just can't keep growing at such a fast rate due to restrictions in the sector size.

While there are some funds that do invest in small caps, by and large the majority of funds are averse to them. That's because the fund would have to be small in size to invest in small caps. If you are managing a US$500mil fund, it's difficult to have sizable positions in small caps. No fund manager wants to look at 100 companies in their portfolio – the monitoring costs are too overwhelming. For mid size to large funds, to invest successfully in small caps would require hitting a lot of home runs every year – a debilitating task.

The coverage on small caps would also be scant at best. Lack of coverage means lack of exposure. Lack of exposure means the stock will not appear on their radar screen. What this means to the individual investor is that, because the small-cap universe is so under-reported or even undiscovered, there is a high probability that small-cap stocks are improperly priced, or usually under-priced.

The biggest drawback to investing in small caps is in the management. Typically, they comprise entrepreneurs who built the company from scratch to its listing capacity. We have to differentiate between people who had a great idea and those who have the ability to grow a company.

Statistics reveal that these entrepreneurs hold onto the company for far too long and do not have the expertise to take the business to the next level. It takes more professionalism and market savvy to turn a RM100mil company into a RM500mil company. Too many entrepreneurs are unwilling to appoint more professional managers, or are blinkered of the need to do so.

There are varying notions of what constitutes a small cap company. In the US, it is generally regarded as companies with market cap of less than US$500mil (which would be regarded as a mid cap in Malaysia and most of the smaller South East Asian countries).

Truth is, there are no hard and fast rules. I would categorise small caps in Malaysia as those with a market value of below RM500mil (because there are just so many of them) and then have another category for those under RM300mil as micro-caps. If we were to push the threshold higher, it would envelope the majority of stocks on the Bursa.

To better spot the better small caps is to examine the company's strategy and execution ability. First, the business needs to be scalable. Secondly, the company must know its market, competitors and its competitive edge. It also must have a clear plan to grow organically or via acquisitions. In addition, there must be increasing professionalism in the way business is run – be it at management or board level. There must exist a clear understanding of cost and capital requirements. Last but not least, is the execution ability. There should be goalposts or milestones marked and reached.

Small caps are able to ride a wave better because they are more agile given their size. The crunch comes when there is a recession or dramatic slowdown in their sector. Many small caps will perform well in a bullish environment but wither easily when the wind blows harder.

A lot of small companies arise from carving a niche in technology. However these companies also suffer swiftly from technology improvements and trend changes. Most do not have sufficient resources to commit at such an early stage into research & development in order to stay ahead of the development and technology curves.

Small caps usually do not pay much dividend as most of its profits will be reinvested to fund growth. This is an additional risk as no or little yield will mean investors would be buying for pure capital appreciation.

My final thought on the issue is that through my observation, I have noticed a certain danger of complacency among owners of small caps. Many entrepreneurs are satisfied once they get their companies listed on the stock exchange. In Malaysia, many of these owners stand to make RM10mil-RM50mil following a listing. Indeed, an attractive sum that can tempt many to “retire” and lose their drive to elevate the company.

Asia File

UNKNOWN to many, Asia File Corporation Bhd is the largest player in the local stationery and office supplies market, specialising in making file dividers and indices. It is actually Malaysia's largest integrated stationery and office supplies manufacturer and distributor, commanding 60% of the domestic market share. As an own brand manufacturer (OBM) in the domestic market, Asia File sells its products under the `ABBA' brand name, which is probably where it is better known among the millions of office workers in the country.

And the company has been going global for some time, with the United States and United Kingdom markets making up most of its sales. Over the years, Asia File has expanded its business overseas, which now contributes more than 70% of its revenue, with the two largest markets being the US and Europe (mainly UK). Yet, despite its global reach and strong product demand, the equity market had somewhat lost interest in the stock, with the share price trading range-bound over the last four years at between RM4.00 and RM6.00.

Rumour had it that there were some family disputes in the management of the company, which is controlled by the Lim family now headed by Executive Chairman Michael Lim Soon Huat, and the company had somewhat lost some direction. Profits were still pretty good even then, probably reflecting the resilience of its business, although they were flat at around RM30 million over the same period. However, Asia File is apparently coming back with a bang, having recently acquired one of the larger players in its market in Europe on the cheap.

According to a recent investment report by CIMB Research, Asia File is set to record a strong compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% over the next three years, as it will be the largest original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in its segment in Europe with the acquisition.

An old hand in the business

Established in 1961, Asia File has been in the stationery business for more than four decades, and today dominates the local industry with a 60% market share. Asia File manufactures and distributes stationery products for both the domestic and export markets and has a vast range of products, the main ones being dividers, lever arch files and ring files, which contribute close to 70% of its current group revenue.

It exports to more than 80 countries, mainly as an OEM and also as an OBM. The largest markets for its products are the UK and the US, which collectively make up more than half of the group’s revenue. Asia File’s manufacturing and headquarters base is in Penang, where the group has a total of three factories, ie, in Permatang Tinggi (200,000sf in size), Bayan Lepas (260,000sf) and Sungai Pinang (60,000sf). Asia File also operates a major warehouse in Puchong in the Klang Valley and in Basingstoke, UK. The average utilisation rate of its factories is said to be 70%-75%, according to CIMB Research.

Listed since 1996

Asia File first got listed in 1996 on the second board of Bursa Malaysia before upgrading itself to the main board in 2000. The company is currently majority-owned by dominant shareholder, Prestige Elegance Sdn Bhd, which holds 47.2% of the group. Prestige is 50.01% owned by Executive Chairman Lim, who is said to take a very hands-on approach towards the group’s domestic and export operations.

The group has also garnered some institutional support and has a number of large institutional shareholders. These include the Arisaig Asean Fund (14.9%), the NT Asian Discovery Fund (6.2%) and Great Eastern Life Assurance (Malaysia) (3.7%). According to CIMB Research, the foreign shareholding in Asia File is currently at around 22%, which could rise further if investors take note of the fact that the group’s major income actually comes from overseas, mainly Europe.

Major breakthrough in Europe

The new excitement in the group stems from its recent acquisition of Plastoreg (PTG), Europe’s largest OEM manufacturer of indices and dividers. According to an industry observer, Asia File has long been on the lookout to acquire stationery companies in Europe and the US as part of its plans to expand its distribution network in these markets. The breakthrough came recently in September 2007, when it grabbed the opportunity to buy over PTG in an attempt to further tap into Europe’s Euro 20 billion (RM96 billion) stationery market. PTG is an OBM in Europe, selling its products under the `INDX’ brand.

PTG has a long history in the business similar to Asia File. The company is also family-run and started operations back in the 1970s. It has today two production plants in Kirchgandern and Witzenhausen, located on the borders of East and West Germany. Both the plants, which total around 30,000sf, are only 15km apart and only need 48 hours to access major European Union (EU) markets by truck.

PTG’s sales are mainly in Europe, with Germany being its largest market at 41% of its total sales. According to CIMB Research, the company has more than 700 customers, mainly international office supply retailers or promotional ring-binder producers. PTG sells mainly standardised products (70% of sales) while bespoke products make up the balance 30%.

Analysts are mainly positive on the acquisition, noting the fact that outside the UK, Asia File’s revenue from Europe is only 1% of total group sales. For one, CIMB Research notes that while Asia File has successfully penetrated the UK market and is currently one of the top-three players in filing products there, the fact is that it only started making inroads into this market in the past few years despite having been in the UK since the late 1980s. With PTG, Asia File will, in one fell swoop, have an extensive distribution network in Europe and the UK, saving its years of relying on just organic growth.

With PTG in the fold, CIMB Research estimates that the new group will in the future make close to 80% of its sales overseas compared to around 60% currently (see Chart 1).

Attractive purchase price

The acquisition will cost Asia File Euro 13.8 million (RM66.2 million), which analysts say is quite an attractive price for a major European stationery company with an extensive distribution network across Europe. The group has net cash of around RM60 million and hence, it would not be a problem for Asia File to pay for the acquisition, which was expected to be completed by last year.

At the price, CIMB Research estimates that Asia File is buying PTG only at around 5.0x one-year forward price earnings (PE) multiple and at 2.2x price to net tangible assets (NTA). The payback period is expected to be three to five years and with PTG under its umbrella, Asia File is expected to be the world’s largest OEM producer and distributor of indices and dividers, producing close to 1.0 billion pieces annually. It’s, thus, not a surprise that the investment community is taking a re-look at the company.

PTG is also said to be managed very efficiently. The company currently has 130 employees and generates an annual revenue per employee of close to RM1.0 million, 4.0x that of Asia File, says CIMB Research. Its plants are also running at full capacity and have orders for more than six months in advance so much so that PTG is looking to invest Euro 2 million (RM9.6 million) in 2008 to expand its production capacity. In addition, PTG’s key board members and senior management are also expected to remain in the company even after Asia File’s acquisition to ensure continuity in its operations.

Additional synergies?

Apart from an increase in the size of its market for Asia File, there is also apparently synergy in product mix and costs as well. At the moment, PTG only produces dividers and indices whereas Asia File manufactures a host of products like lever arch files, binders, polypropylene products, manila files and paper products. As such, analysts believe that Asia File could easily use PTG’s distribution network in Europe to sell its other products.

CIMB Research thinks that there could also be major cost savings and economies of scale once PTG comes on board. According to the research unit, PTG currently sources its raw material and intermediate products like mylar and polypropylene films from third- party suppliers. As Asia File also produces these raw materials, the enlarged group could potentially save up to Euro 2 million (RM9.6 million) annually just by supplying in-house to PTG. This could lead to better pricing discounts and rising operational utilisation rates for the whole group.

Risks

Despite the apparent benefits of PTG, CIMB Research also cautions that given the larger presence of the group sales from overseas, short-term volatility in the foreign exchange rate (forex), especially that of the US dollar, could affect Asia File’s profit margin in the immediate term, as there is a lag period of around two to three months before the group would be able to pass on any cost increases to its customers. To minimise this impact, Asia File has plans to hedge its forex exposure.

There is also the risk that a price war could start between PTG and its rivals in Europe, although it’s not likely Asia File would want to resort to such an action although its competitors’ actions are less predictable. A global slowdown in the US and Europe could also, needless to say, affect the group’s sales going forward since its markets are now predominantly in those markets and users are likely to cut back on office and stationery supplies in any business slowdown.

What could Asia File be worth?

CIMB Research is bullish on the group’s acquisition of PTG and believes that Asia File is undervalued despite its share price having almost doubled to around RM9.75 at the time of writing in the last several months from its four-year trading range of RM4.00-RM6.00 (see Chart 2). In fact, the research unit has an end-FY08 price target of RM15.60 for the stock, basing it on still a reasonable CY09 target PE multiple of 13.0x for regional stationery stocks. The main catalyst would probably be the estimated strong 40% growth in the group’s CAGR by the research unit.

Notwithstanding the risks inherent in owning a stock whose share price has risen so rapidly, retail investors, meanwhile, could also likely be attracted to the company’s upcoming proposed 3:5 bonus issue, which should see more liquidity in its trading on the local bourse. With its growth likely muted domestically, Europe seems to be a good place for the group to make its comeback to the limelight, that is as long as it sticks to doing what it knows best in the stationery business.

By: James from: FindArticles - Hot European Foray
Malaysian Business, Jan 1, 2008, by James S